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Comment by Y_Y | Hacker News Reader

My hobby: monetizing cynicism.

I go on Polymarket and find things that would make me happy or optimistic about society and tech, and then bet a couple of dollars (of some shitcoin) against them.

e.g. OpenAI releasing an open weights model before September is trading at 81% at time of writing - https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-an-open-sou...

Last month I was up about ten bucks because OpenAI wasn't open, the ceasefire wasn't a ceasefire, and the climate metrics got worse. You can't hedge away all the existential despair, but you can take the sting out of it.

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> go on Polymarket and find things that would make me happy or optimistic about society and tech, and then bet a couple of dollars (of some shitcoin) against them.

Classic win win bet. Your bet wins -> you make money (win). Your bet loses -> something good happened for society (win).

Classic lose lose too

My friend does this and calls it “hedging humanity”. Every time some big political event has happened that bums me out, he’s made a few hundred.

people still use crypto? I thought the hype died around the time when AI boomed.

People use crypto on Polymarket because it doesn't comply with gambling regulations, so in theory isn't allowed to have US customers. Using crypto as an intermediary lets Polymarket pretend not to know where the money is coming from. Though I think a more robust regulator would call them out on the large volume of betting on US politics on their platform...

> a more robust regulator would call them out

Calling them out is one thing, but do you think the US could realistically stop them?

I don't know much about Polymarkets governance structure, if it's a decentralized smart contract, the US is DOA. Even if it's not... the Pirate Bay wasn't, the US really tried to stop them, and they basically didn't get anywhere.

Looking it up, it seems like the CEO actually got raided by the FBI last year: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi-raids-polymarket-ceos-h... So maybe the wheels of justice are just grinding a bit slowly. The terms of use want to have Panamanian law apply https://polymarket.com/tos but that doesn't provide much protection when the company is physically operating in the US.

Bitcoin is higher than ever. People can't wait until it gets high enough that they can sell it for dollars, and use those dollars to buy things and make investments in things that are valuable.

> Bitcoin is higher than ever

That's just speculation though. I saw a cynical comment on reddit yesterday that unfortunately made a lot of sense. Many people now are just so certain that the future of work is not going to include many humans, so they're throwing everything into stocks and crypto, which is why they remain so high even in the face of so much political uncertainty. It's not that people are investing because they have hope. People are just betting everything as a last ditch survival attempt before the robots take over.

Of course this is hyperbolic - market forces are never that simple. But I think there might be some truth to it.

What does 'just' mean here? The monetary value of a thing is what people will pay you for it. Full stop.

The question was about people using crypto to buy things. The person above me was implying that because it's going up in value, people are using it that way. I replied to say that it's (mostly) just speculation. Which is a kind of use, but not the one being implied.

The irony is that these people think their rights as shareholders will be respected in this future world.

It's a bit like when peasants had to sell their land for cash and ended up enslaved working their own land.

It'll work at first but it's just what the parent poster said: a last ditch effort of the desperate and soon to be desperater.

Wait until you hear about this thing called gold and how its price behaves during periods of uncertainty.

Gold (and land, jewels, antiques etc.) are bought and held during times of uncertainty because people believe they will retain their value through virtually anything. Stocks don't work that way. In times of uncertainty, gold should increase in value, stocks should decrease.

Crypto is high because people keep believing some sucker in the future will buy it from them even higher. So far, they've been right all along. You really think crypto is ever going to pay some kind of dividend?

Isn't that equivalent to saying the USD won't pay dividends. Correct, but also not the point. I say this as someone with no crypto ownership.

There is always demand for USD, it is the only way to pay taxes in the US.

Does gold pay dividends? Would you say it's a bad investment?

I'm also someone who owns zero crypto.

Gold is useful.

That wasn't the question.

people use crypto for speculation, and for (semi)illegal purposes

only a small percentage of use is for actual legitimate money transfers

Unfortunatley crypto hype is still high; and I think still on the up, but that's vibes not market analysis.

"Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. You must be 18 years or older to gamble. If you need help, please contact your local gambling advice group or your doctor"

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