It is a fair point, but how strong of a point it is remains to be seen, some architectures are better than others, even with the same training data, so not impossible we could at one point see some innovative architectures beating current proprietary ones. It would probably be short-lived though, as the proprietary ones would obviously improve in their next release after that.
Don't focus too much on a single variable, especially when all the variables have diminishing returns.
[0] the ultimate, of course, being profit.
I'm not sure if we're thinking of the same field of AI development. I think I'm talking about the super-autocomplete with integrated copy of all of digitalized human knowledge, while you're talking about trying to do (proto-)AGI. Is that it?
You just listed possible options in the order of their relative probability. Human would attempt to use them in exactly that order