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Comment by blitzo | Hacker News Reader

If China finally figured out how to make whatever machines ASML does, that the sell signal for NVDA.

I do broadly agree, but want to note that the ASML machines are not necessarily the bottleneck, or at least not the final bottleneck, and their valuation reflects that.

There’s a reason why only TSMC and to a lesser extent now Samsung and Intel are the only serious players in top-end semiconductors. You can’t just buy the machine and print chips, the amount of iterative tuning and know-how required to get good yields is immense. Weirdly, the actual bottleneck seems to be the availability of what can almost be described as “master craftsmanship”. But it’s not enough either to hire a couple of masters, it’s the collective institutional knowledge built up over >50 years.

And, of course, TSMC is not worth nearly as much as NVidia either even if they manufacture all their hardware.

Bottleneck for PRC likely equipment now. Shortly after US export controls, SMIC poached Jian Shanyi TSMC R&D Chief, he got SMIC to 7nm in like 2 years from mediocre 14nm - full node leap, i.e. 2 ~generations, before Intel and when Samsung 7nm was barely competent. This was before heavier equipment controls. In terms of producing "master craftsmanship" PRC seems fully capable, a lot of their fab technicians trained by TSMC/Samsung have taken over by now, and doing reasonable job of clawing their way to 5nm with DUV, i.e. they have the technical chops and east asian work ethic. Ultimately since raising semi to first-level dicipline, PRC currently the only major semi power without projected 100,000s talent shortfall in coming years. They have all the capable people... lots of state capacity to buy talent and espionage processes. They just need the machines.

>You can’t just buy the machine and print chips

Exactly this, as otherwise there would be nothing stopping ASML opening up its own competing fabs next door with their cutting edge machines 12 months before they sell them to their customers for maximum profits, the same way Bitcoin ASMIC mining companies did with their chips.

Or at least some Dutch/EU company in the area doing it, but nobody else can do what TSMC does at the cutting edge. For context, EU's most cutting edge fabs will be the Dresden TSMC one at 12nm.

We have a class of shawmans who knows how to speak the right incantations over the magic crystals during their formation which causes our machines to think and create value in the world.

Also, the world is not going to "hyperscale" forever.

But also also, it most likely will for the next 10 years.

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