The numbers have been so consistently wrong in the same direction. It could be that there are other things going on, but simply that volatile numbers come in later doesn’t seem to explain the bias.
summary of mean revision for seasonally adjusted numbers, since 2003 are
2nd-1st: 8
3rd-2nd: 2
1st-3rd: 10
but 2025 has been consistently, so far, be negative revisions. Dec 2024 has some positive revisions but 2023-2024 on the whole was negative while 2017-2022 were on the whole positive revision. so I dont think that there is data to support consistently wrong in one direction.
Anyone want to take bets on how the revisions will go on this?
Because the data have been going in one direction recently. When the job market booms, the revisions are upwards. Then everyone gets to wax lyrical about how BLS is socking the President.
Preliminary reports always underplay the direction of the change