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Comment by wpm | Hacker News Reader

$TSLA up 3.88% at the time of this comment.

And -3.91% on the last 5 days, and -8.89% in the last month, and +34% in the last year. There is no real point to be taken here.

Yeah. The fact is Tesla is a volatile stock. You can paint any picture you want if you select the right timeframe.

It's hard to un-paint the picture that it's got a 170 P/E, and it has 2 years of negative growth...

Use a 365 day rolling average. You'll arrive at the same absurdity.

People love making excuses for this stock. It’s a meme stock. It makes no sense and it never will.

I love when everyone says this as if there is not very obvious reasons it could trade this high

Name them instead of stating it as fact.

tesla is making millions of cars with the capability of driving themselves. conservatively imagine the cars make 2k a month. each 1 million cars could then make 24 billion per year

That’s not a good argument. They’ve done terribly in this space so far and Waymo is far ahead of them.

I said this is why it could trade so high. Not making an argument for if they'll achieve it or not. Tho I think they will

Even at insane growth multiples there's plenty of high/mega caps on the SP500 that will never, ever return investors the money that simple bonds will, you're paying way too much for way too little (future) cash flows and book.

There's many companies that have their revenues flat or falling from quite some time which are still priced for insane future growth. Go figure.

Well the problem there is that you don’t know which companies will pay better than bonds and which ones won’t.

Haven’t run the numbers, but I assume that you could take the S&P 500 over whatever timeframe you want, remove all the stocks that didn’t outperform bonds, and be left with a basket of stocks that wildly outperforms the actual S&P 500.

> Well the problem there is that you don’t know which companies will pay better than bonds and which ones won’t.

And that uncertainty should be priced in with a risk premium, the risk premium is nowhere to be seen.

Tesla's stock price has always seemed completely irrational to me. Tesla's market cap is over double Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, VW, GM, and Ford combined. All while selling far fewer cars then any of those manufacturers.

For this market cap to make sense, Tesla would have to eventually become the dominant car manufacturer worldwide. And that just doesn't seem like a reasonable prediction, given that legacy car manufacturers are starting to figure out EVs, and newer EV-focused manufacturers are making huge strides.

I don't know when (or even if) Tesla's stock price will fall back down to Earth. The old saying is that the market can remain irrational longer then you can remain solvent. But I do know that Tesla's stock price is not a good indicator of how well they're doing as a car manufacturer.

The car company may not be selling vehicles but it has around ten invite-only self-driving manned robotaxis in a single US city that was possibly mapped separately before launch, so it's obviously worth a lot of money.

In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine. This still applies to TSLA.

That's 1) buying the dip and 2) beating the estimate. TSLA has always been about the personality of a car salesman more than anything, so this isn't a surprise.

Genuine question: what is driving the stock that high in contradiction to the news ?

Assuming "the market" to act "rational" (which can be questioned to some degree in that case - there is hype and the Musk-Factor ..) the driver is that the news may still be better than the prediction: If everybody two days ago assumed a decline of sales by 30% the stocks dropped back then, then real numbers come and decline is "only" 14% they raise again as the bad news are still better than assumed.

(The 30% is just an arbitrary number)

Elon does alot of manipulation of the stock. Also, the market is kind of shell shocked and has no idea wtf to do.

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