I'm in a small non-tech business and already have 7 "vibe coded" apps used daily. Two of them are replacements for what would have been paid for software.

They wouldn't create a Xero replacement (although ironically I did vibecode a business order/finance tracking app for my own side hustle, fuck paying $30/mo when I just need the basics), they would vibecode any of the litany of small industry specific software packages they use.

Small businesses also use a spreadsheet e-mailed from person to person. A vibe-coded x_table or x_base powered app would get them 80% there with minimal cost. I'd put it in a "it depends" category of things that might or might not happen in the near future.