This is a terrible take. Whenever there is a massive technical shift it's the incumbents who struggle to adapt. We've already seen companies go from nothing to being worth tens of billions.
This is a terrible take. Whenever there is a massive technical shift it's the incumbents who struggle to adapt. We've already seen companies go from nothing to being worth tens of billions.
Did we? I mean, I guess we're surviving it for now, but climate change data doesn't tell the most optimistic story.
edit: typos/grammar abound.
No
Life would be quite different if we could subjectively experience ourselves as a whole.
And we got a few wars whose death toll exceeded the pre-industrial population of the UK. And one whose toll exceeds the current population of the UK.
You always survive unless you don’t.
We could make an error that kills the whole species based on the assumption because we survived before
And even then, many of the biggest winners of AI so far (Google, Microsoft, NVidia, etc.) are already some of the biggest companies on the planet.
The techies making money are the AI experts. The real AI experts. Not the TF/PyTorch monkeys.
There's actually a massive and underappreciated difference between the two groups of people. It goes to the heart of why so many AI efforts in industry fail, but AI Labs keep making more and more advances. Out in industry, we mistake Tensor Flow monkeys for AI experts. And it's not even close.
Worse, you look at market price to get some of the real AI experts, and you realize that you have no shot at securing any of that intellectual capital. And even if you have the resources to secure some of that talent, that talent has requirements. They're fools if they consider you at less than 10^4 H100s. So now you have another problem.
I think techniques, R&D, secrets, intellectual capital, and so on are all centralizing in the major labs. Startups as we knew them 5 to 10 years ago will simply be choosing which model to build on. They have no legitimate shot at displacing any of the core LLM ecosystems. They'll all be nibbling at the edges.
And now the artists have to wash dishes because AI is making the art.
Nope, he was right. Rich get richer, poor get poorer. A few unicorns you can count on one hand doesn't change the facts.
It literally and structurally offers advantage to those with more resources.
That effect compounds over time and use.
I am not even remotely talking about worker replacement, even assuming no job was lost, a company that is able to pay for better answers should have more profit and therefore more ability to pay for more/better answers.
incumbents.
That said, I think that's just how reality works.
Companies come and go but the rich people who owns them nearly stay the same