You take small AIs, of the same size and architecture, and with the same pretraining dataset size. Pretrain some solely on skims from "2019 only", "2020 only", "2021 only" scraped datasets. The others on skims from "2023 only", "2024 only". Then you run RLHF, and then test the resulting AIs on benchmarks.
The latter AIs tend to perform slightly better. It's a small but noticeable effect. Plenty of hypothesis on why, none confirmed outright.
You're right that performance of frontier AIs keeps improving, which is a weak strike against the idea of AI contamination hurting AI training runs. Like-for-like testing is a strong strike.