It is a trap to consider that first principles perspective is sufficient. Like, if I tell you before 1980: "iterate over f(z) = z^2 + c" there is no way you are going to guess fractals emerge. Same with the rules for Conway's Game of Life - seeing the code you won't guess it makes gliders and guns.
My point is that recursion creates its own inner opacity, it is irreducible, so knowing a recursive system behavior from its iteration code alone is insufficient. It is a becoming not a static thing. That's also why we have the halting problem - recursion.
Reasoning is a recursive process too, you can't understand it from analyzing its parts.
Without properly defining what thinking is and what is not, you can't discuss it's properties, let alone discuss which entity manifests it or not.
Lack of definition seems to be ideal substrate for marketing and hype.
That's nonsense, because the people obligated to furnish a "rigorous definition" are the people who make the positive claim that something specific is happening.
Also, the extraordinary claims are the ones that require extraordinary evidence, not the other way around.
Inconvertibly demonstrating a dramatic failure in its, and many of its kind's, ability to reason.
You act as if statistical processes can’t ever scale into reasoning, despite the fact that humans themselves are gradient-trained statistical learners over evolutionary and developmental timescales.
> Reasoning is not difficult to define
> Reasoning exists on a spectrum
> statistical processes [can] scale into reasoning
It seems like quite a descent here, starting with the lofty heights of condemning skeptics as "cretins" and insisting the definition is easy... down to what sounds like the introduction to a flavor of panpsychism [0], where even water flowing downhill is a "statistical process" which at enough scale would be "reasoning".
I don't think that's a faithful match to what other people mean [1] when they argue LLMs don't "reason."
I very strongly agree with you. :)
That’s really not what’s happening though. People who claim LLMs can do X and Y often don’t even understand how LLMs work. The opposite is also true. They just open a prompt and get an output and shout Eureka. Of course not everyone is like this, but majority are. It’s similar to what we think about thinking itself. You read these comments and everyone is an expert on human brain and how it works. It’s fascinating.
I personally believe that not being sure about something, esp. on a topic as complicated and as this one, remaining open to different possibilities, and having a bit of skepticism, is healthy.
Imagine a simple, but humongous hash table, that maps every possible prompt of 20000 letters to the most appropriate answer in current time.
(How? Let’s say outsourcing to east asia or aliens…)
Would you say such mechanism is doing reasoning?