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I have zero knowledge of finance and trading, but when I got curious about algorithmic systems, it seemed like sentiment-based trading using current events was a more viable strategy than forecasting/regression-based analysis.

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For HFT - yes, and that has been the case since before the .com bubble. Trading on news is what fuels HFT. And value trading is primarily based on insider trading / corruption.

What's left over is ETF's or luck.

Not really anymore, and for a long time: This article is more than 10 years old and describes what impressive tech & metrics they were using already back then:

https://queue.acm.org/detail.cfm?id=2536492

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