It was the war with Russia that drove the fed to raise interest rates in 2022 - a measure that was intended to curb inflation triggered by spikes in the prices of economic inputs (gas, oil, fertilizer, etc.).
The tech layoffs started later that year.
Widespread job cuts are an intended effect of raising interest rates - more unemployed = less spending = keeps a lid on inflation.
AI is just cashing in on the trend.
Of course, nothing is further from the truth. "Russian invasion of Ukraine" is what should be written there.
Perhaps "Russia's war" would have been a better phrasing that captures both spirits (but it's not a phrase you hear said much).
For example, Ukraine was a very important food supplier -- one of the top grain suppliers in the World -- and the invasion caused shortages of some foods. Another example is that Ukraine provided a good source of iron ore for EU-based manufacture. If nothing else that would be important to USAmericans as indicating a market opportunity.
Without that invasion and Putin's inspiration, would Trump have threatened invasion of USA's neighbours? That's got to be vital to USA finances too.
Here's the BBC using it[1], CNN[2], The AP [3], The Conversation [4]
[1]https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0l0k4389g2o
[2]https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/21/europe/europe-conscription-wa...
[3]https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-star...
[4]https://theconversation.com/why-russias-armed-forces-have-pr...
Also even some of Trump's team.
The establishment doesnt suddenly get swapped out because a new President gets in (even if the tides are shifting).
Heroyam Slava.
That is, until 10 years later when they have a new narrative about a different military rival. They quietly stop pushing the old narrative and everyone quietly admits the old one was kinda bullshit all along.
E.g. my views didnt change one iota since 2003 but these views at some point magically stopped conferring a "Saddam sympathizer" moniker from people who demanded unthinking ideological commitment.
It works the same way with people who live under and unthinkingly consume Russian imperialist propaganda too. The more passionate ones make routine demands for ideological purity similar to the one above.
That is, until 10 years later when they have a new narrative about a different military rival. They quietly stop pushing the old narrative and everyone quietly admits the old one was kinda bullshit all along. /---/ It works the same way with people who live under and unthinkingly consume Russian imperialist propaganda too.
Then we went through a lot of bullshit - that Ukrainian nationalists were committing genocide in Donbas, or that Ukraine was secretly developing nuclear and biological weapons.
Now, 10 years later, the narrative has shifted to how this has always been a major confrontation with the USA and NATO, a "proxy war". No doubt, it will shift many more times. Looking forward to when the current "supreme commander" Putin will be regarded as a failure, much like Gorbachev, and blamed for causing the difficult 2030s.
Nobody has ever been jailed for this terrorist attack and all the evidence points to Ukrainian fascists being culpable, including:
* The Berkut who were there being tried and the trial falling through because all of them were too obviously very far away from the protestor-controlled hotel where the snipers nest was set up.
* A Ukrainian war hero who had no reason to lie who was there telling people who was responsible (before being thrown in jail).
* A group of the snipers (mercenaries who were there who never got paid) went public.
It was as much a proxy war back then, it was just fought under the surface with NGO agitators instead of weapons deliveries.
The fact that you have to make something like this up within the first ten words of your narrative really shows just how detached from reality it is.
I wonder what narratives will dominate after the war, when reality sets in: hundreds of thousands dead and never returning home; several times as many disabled, many of them severely; the might and pride of the Russian military sunk or blown up; returned soldiers running massive criminal rings like in the 1990s; state budget empty from massive military spending, leaving people to survive on their own as safety nets crumble. Some conspiracy story about snipers 10+ years ago in another country doesn't really cut it, and getting beaten in an imagined confrontation with the "collective West" sounds really pathetic too, especially when the other side didn't even step into the boxing ring. The USAF hasn't flown a single sortie against Russia, yet strategic bombers are already burning on airfields like in the opening hours of Operation Barbarossa.
Reichstag fire. All the nutter conspiracy theorists think Hitler did it. Obviously you know better.
>The fact that you have to make something like this up
Evidence doesnt mean much to some people. They will follow the narrative of their leaders whether it is dictated via Moscow blabbing about biolabs or Washington that they allied with freedom loving democrats in Ukraine rather than Nazi goons.
The near zero interest rates, pause on student loan payments, pause on rent payments, doubling of unemployment pay, and then the dustings of stimulus checks and bonus childcare checks, all while most white collar workers just continued working like nothing happened, created an incredibly cash rich environment that most people have never seen before.
And the PPP loans handouts to business owners just to throw more gas on the fire.
Software in the US has (aside from maybe finance) been an almost uniquely well-compensated field. That will probably adjust over time especially given the inflow of grads primarily in it for the money.
Software industry was over hiring probably ever since dot-com bubble because after the bubble burst revenue and profits were rapidly growing and it never really stopped. I would rather blame the managers who constantly pushed for more workers instead of increasing the productivity of the existing workforce.
Prices and unemployment really started to rise after that. The EU buys overpriced LNG from the US, so the US is somewhat isolated from that. But the US is not isolated against the general economic downturn worldwide.
Politicians do not care. Merz, with barely 25% approval of the German population, continues the policies outlined by Hegseth during his visit to the EU. Trump still plays theater to appease his MAGA base, but Senators Rubio and Graham increasingly start holding the reins.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine however caused a whole bunch of economic inputs like energy and fertilizer to spike, and central banks world wide didn't want economies to "get used to" constant high inflation rates, causing a perpetual problem.
But instead all the productivity workers just switched to their home office and things just kept working. The stimulus should have been shut off in early-mid 2021 when this was abundantly clear. But the government let it run because people were so jubilant in the money shower.
That was not entirely true.
Trump’s pandemic spending (lockdowns, vaccines…), and subsequently Biden’s, but most importantly the curiously named Inflation Reduction Act were obvious drivers. You can’t stimulate an already overheated economy to the tune of 2 trillion without getting Larry Summers a bit worked up.
And remember when they first said inflation was "transitory" and caused by supply chain issues from the economy reopening after covid? They didn't raise interest rates then because, like I mentioned above, interest rates don't help with supply shocks. If they did, the Fed would have raised rates then.
Was actively looking at this time for months prior and it went from a few recruiters a day reaching out to a few a week.
And that's only the indirect effect on equity funding; debt funding just directly becomes more expensive.