What universities were (and still are) really great at is being a place for intense learning. What 99% of their customers now want is vocational training to get a well paying job.
Exactly because of the status/prestige (+ government incentives + being very far from a free market), customers that don't really want what the university is selling are attending in droves.
My nephews are about to enter that same high school about 25 years later. From what I’ve gleaned, they still have the program for vocational training. I think the kids went on a field trip there is middle school.
Could they? This is a perennial HN complaint; however, the salaries for jobs that vocational schools would train your for show very little pressure to increase. That doesn't indicate some mythical pent up demand that a bunch of new vocational students could slot into.
Most people are going to college because they want to avoid working at the equivalent of an Amazon warehouse. If you can give them a way to do that, they'll happily skip going to a university.
The pay seems pretty comparable to an Amazon warehouse until you pass at least 3 years of training.
And not everybody gets to wire up air conditioned data centers. A lot of wiring is outside in the hot sun climbing up and down ladders.
If the salaries were significantly better, I should think we'd see a lot of people beating down the doors to be electricians, but we don't ...
Electrician apprentices make $20-28/h. Once you’re licensed you’re pretty much guaranteed $30+/h, most break $40/h pretty quick if they’re good. If you start your own company (which isn’t that hard here!) you’re probably closer to $60-100/h depending on skill, niche, client base, and luck.
Plumbing is pretty similar but the ceiling’s probably triple that of electricians.
Trade school is so cheap it’s almost free. (My brother just finished an automotive mechanic program, I think his total out-of-pocket cost was like $1500 for a few years of school + apprenticeship, and he was making $30/h by the end of the apprenticeship. He’s now at around $36/h iirc, less than a year out of the program.)
I don’t believe it’s possible to make even apprentice money as an Amazon warehouse worker here. Maybe as a floor manager. And yes, obviously trades aren’t sunshine and rainbows, but if you have even a modicum of motivation you’re better off there than packing boxes.
If you don’t have that level of motivation (which again, is really not that high), you won’t succeed. You can walk into an Amazon warehouse (or honestly, any similar warehouse job) and start working either that day or in very short order, and get paid in 2 weeks or less. It’s the least amount of effort possible to get a job, but it’s also the least rewarding (mentally, financially, etc).
There are also some people who genuinely cannot work in the trades. Almost any kind of physical disability and you’re at a severe disadvantage. Same with mental disabilities (to a lesser degree).
There’s real downsides too. Some trades are fairly dangerous (electrician comes to mind, especially if you’re working with oldheads who are happy to work on live unfused lines/etc) and almost all of them will result in you degrading your body faster than average (although this is also true for warehouse jobs). Buddy of mine caught a piece of shrapnel with his eye (while wearing listed wraparound safety glasses, mind you) while grinding some metal underneath a car, and has permanent vision damage in one eye at age 24. You also have to be pretty tolerant of more… abusive working environments. Aside from general tomfoolery (“boys will be boys” type mindset), there’s a substantially higher chance than average that your colleagues will be racist, sexist, homophobic, transphobic, or all of the above, which isn’t great if you fall into one of those categories. It’s a lot better now than it was even 10-15 years ago, but it’s still very much a problem. (I’ve never had an office worker casually drop a hard-r while at work, but I’ve encountered enough tradespeople doing so that I’ve lost count of how many. And not even in an even remotely acceptable way, just whites dudes straight up using it to refer to someone as a slave or similar uses. In the past ~3 years.)
And honestly, probably a lot of people working at warehouses are moving to trades. Warehousing in general is high-turnover (40-50%, if not higher), so it would not shock me if a non-negligible portion of workers are switching to a non-warehouse career. I don’t know how to find stats on that though.
In short, lots of reasons.
> however, the salaries for jobs that vocational schools would train your for show very little pressure to increase.
I mean another perennial HN complaint is about how "off-topic" university CS courses are. Personally, I disagree. I'm with Knuth on this one:
> People who are more than casually interested in computers should have at least some idea of what the underlying hardware is like. Otherwise the programs they write will be pretty weird.
I mean the major thing I would change about code camps is make it a 1 year or 2 year process and actually get some depth and nuance instead of being a cram school focused more on trying to get you to pass the test than trying to teach you what the test is trying to test.
Are they? A lot of professors hate and/or are bad at teaching. Especially at R1 research universities.
There are lots of problems, specifically for undergrads:
- Large class sizes
- Professors that don't like teaching
- Professors that can't teach well
- Professors that hand off teaching to TAs, RAs, doctoral students, etc.
- Poor feedback on homework, essays, projects, and exams
- Unnecessary classes
- Outdated classes and curriculum
- Sports programs that serve as recruitment and distraction that are orthogonal to learning
- Admin structures that care more about facilities, growth, and recruitment than learning and research
- Systems that are "too big to fail"
- Student loans that are disconnected from bankruptcy, which feeds a recursively growing monster in such a way that it isn't exposed to evolutionary pressures. There is no risk, so malinvestment doesn't bear consequences.
> What 99% of their customers now want is vocational training to get a well paying job.
You can want a curriculum rich in theory and the vocational training for a well-paying job. The problem is that universities are full of perverse incentives - the admin and faculty are at odds, and often even the faculty itself isn't aligned with teaching.
It's a weird org structure steeped in tradition, nostalgia from alumnus, and a faculty tenure system that doesn't always reward the right things.