I can see current models replacing *fresh graduates*, on the basis of what I've seen from various fresh graduates over the last 20 years.
I don't disagree that models makes a lot of eye-rolling mistakes, it's just that I've seen such mistakes from juniors also, and this kind of AI is a junior in all fields simultaneously (unlike real graduates which are mediocre at only one thing and useless at the rest) and cost peanuts — literally, priced at an actual bag of peanuts.
Humans do have an advantage very quickly once they actually get any real-world experience, so I would also say it's not yet as good as someone with even just 2 years experience — but this comes with a caveat: I'm usually a few months behind on model quality, on the grounds that I think there's not much point paying for the latest and greatest when the best becomes obsolete (and thus free) over that timescale.