Interestingly, Windows on ARM hasn't made it up to Tier 1 yet.
Windows on ARM couldn't be tier 1 until recently as there weren't Windows ARM github runners. Now that there are I think it likely that it'll be promoted to tier 1.
An RFC for that has been submitted recently: https://github.com/rust-lang/rfcs/pull/3817
This is looking to go for it though https://github.com/dpaoliello/rfcs/blob/aarch64tier1/text/38... but we'll see if there is enough interest.
Windows on ARM is irelevant. Surface is Microsoft's offering to keep execs away from Apple. And just like Apple, they are toys. All relevant Windows software is x86(-64).
Using smaller pointers also allows for better data locality and better cache efficiency depending on your data layout. If you're not close to hitting 4GiB of RAM, a few free percentage points in performance aren't a bad deal.
Microsoft isn't going to deprecate 32 bit application support any time soon, so you may as well take advantage. That said, so few people have need for it that the deprecation into tier 2 support is probably the right choice. Whatever the 32 bit ABI can do, a custom allocator can probably do just as well on x64.
Oh, and Office stll comes in 32 bit mode for some reason. If you're building an Office plugin, you may need 32 bit code.