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I think this is a strange take - Technological advancements aren't mutual funds.

Of course it's an indicator of future performance - Not a guarantee, but certainly a indictator.

I think what I genuinely have an issue with is that extrapolation ignores the finer details of research work being taken to understand the current issues that may affect the future goals of a technology. It basically just ignores the science of it in favor of "well we've seen this level work before". The thing is, sometimes the more these experts learn about the current goal to beat in their product, the more things previously unknown and unplanned for present themselves as new issues. Extrapolating is a bit past-facing when you see it this way, because those new problems are entirely new challenges that haven't been considered in the equation and may require an entirely new approach. Every success is different, every failure, and every challenge is different. So extrapolating seems pointless.

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