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If that was a main factor, surely then Mexico should be ground zero for next-generation car electronics design? Like, Tijuana or Ciudad Juarez.

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I can't speak to car electronics design or anything about the capabilities of Tijuana or Ciudad Juarez, but your comment had me reflecting that in the mid/late 90s those of us who were in b-school went from all about Mexico to all about China overnight. With NAFTA et al, American manufacturing was going to be all about developing factories in Mexico and moving good back and forth between the US and Mexico for design and finishing. Then once China joined the WTO it was absolutely an instantaneous pivot to China instead. Maybe all that's old is new again?

Right. The unwritten story of the last three decades is the Mexican people in general have lost out on the huge generational opportunity they theoretically should have from being a (comparatively) low-wage manufacturing and R&D option on the US's doorstep ("friendshoring").

On paper Mexico reaped enormous gains from NAFTA(/MCA) but those went to a small slice of the population, and people on fixed incomes/not in manufacturing/services objectively got worse due to inflation and rising cost-of-living, property prices. The share of GDP effectively lost due to corruption is also an issue.

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