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Comment by _1tem | Hacker News Reader

> do you commit millions to building something that doesn't pay off until 5 years from now?

This is exactly the kind of short-termism that got us to where we are now. Why is it so hard to think on a 5-10 year timeline? This is country-level ADHD. Anything worth building requires long term investments. People in the past used to spend their life building cathedrals that they knew would never be finished in their lifetime, and now you're questioning whether it's worth investing in something that has an expected ROI in 5 years!

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But what if 2 years in all the tariffs are cancelled and you go bankrupt?

if you want people to think long term you need long term stable policies that won't change the next time someone else sits in the oval office or Congress changes hands. you need to commit to a strategy.

> Why is it so hard to think on a 5-10 year timeline?

Because the tariff plans have changed every few days. If the tariffs were stable over 5-10 years, businesses would adapt.

> This is country-level ADHD.

Yes, these tariffs are.

The ROI isn't 5 years, it's more that it won't generate any returns for 5 years and those returns might not pan out depending on policy change. If you build an American factory and right as it's getting up and running, the next administration rolls back all tariffs, you're left with massive debt and everyone undercutting your prices.

Risk. It's called "doing business". Anyone who has built anything great took risks because they had a vision and believed in it. They weren't "rent seeking" and looking for guaranteed returns.

the upside has to justify the risk or it isn't a good investment.

You're missing half the equation.

It's Risk vs Reward. Anyone who built something great took huge risks, for a huge return.

There is no return here. At best, you've sunk a ton of capital into a low-profit business that is propped up only by government subsidy.

Show 'em how it's done then.

There's a mousetrap down that hall and I don't smell any cheese

probably why congress should be putting tariffs into laws.

You are free to spend billions betting in an unstable government then. Show them how it's done!

Oh, you meant other people's money.

What bank is going to finance a loan for a new factory whose profitability is predicated on this trade policy remaining stable for the next decade? Even if you as a business owner have appetite for this risk, the bank won't.

Even if all those factories were built instantaneously, it still results in made-in-usa prices for all Americans for everything coming out of those factories, along with protective tariffs forever. A factory can't be constructed or operate going forward in the US for the same price as in China. The moment any president drops tariffs, all those factories will shut down immediately.

This isn't long term thinking industrial policy. Flip flopping and using ChatGPT to steer tariff policy isn't looking ahead. Pure delusion.

Trump has control of all branches yet isn't passing any legislation. All he's doing is introducing uncertainty.

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