I find that these conversations on HN end up covering similar positions constantly.

I believe that most positions are resolved if

1) you accept that these are fundamentally narrative tools. They build stories, In whatever style you wish. Stories of code, stories of project reports. Stories or conversations.

2) this is balanced by the idea that the core of everything in our shared information economy is Verification.

The reason experts get use out of these tools, is because they can verify when the output is close enough to be indistinguishable from expert effort.

Domain experts also do another level of verification (hopefully) which is to check if the generated content computes correctly as a result - based on their mental model of their domain.

I would predict that that LLMs are deadly in the hands of people who can’t gauge the output, and will end up driving themselves off of a cliff, while experts will be able to use it effectively on tasks where verification of the output has a comparative effort advantage, over the task of creating the output.