The only pattern I can see is it being potentially unsustainable, but I find it hard to believe that, considering I can run an LLM that is more capable that SOTA from 2 years ago on a single box in my living room.
The same thing that makes me think that it could: I do not have a crystal ball.
It's a simple test. Have patience. With your tone, even if you are right and it stands the test of time, you will look like a tool.
That is the goal of a hype trend. To make even healthy skeptics feel like they are missing a great thing.
I am actually an early adopter though. I just don't like bragging around.
Researchers know that most "goal posts moved" are actually great challenges. It would be sad if they saw it as pessimism.
Think of it as a more creative way to engage in the hype.
Skeptics are more valuable than blind believers. You want a blind believer testing your airbag or a skeptic that will move some goal posts to try and sniff out any bugs?