How many times will the tariffs shift between Lutnick's comments here and 1 month from now?
Uncertainty does not encourage investment. So, we probably shouldn't believe them when they say that's why they're doing this.
There has already been capital flight. Trump's (temporary?) U-turn on tariffs was due to a massive sell-off in US Treasuries, largely by the Japanese, which caused yields to jump.
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250412232/how...
The US would certainly be in trouble if the perception of instability reduces the appetite for US debt, or if holders choose to weaponize it.
Isn't that the point? If things are so unstable, you avoid the instability by manufacturing domestically.
If they want anyone to believe that the tariffs will remain in effect long enough to make a profit, they will need to pass a bill. Ideally, a bill that ratchets tariffs up over a long enough period of time to actually build the capacity in the US of the thing you want to tariff.
If manufacturers move overseas, they (so far) get to compete for US business on a level playing field, and (in some alternate countries) can make planning decisions that assume due process exists and the law will be upheld. In the worst case, they can sell everywhere but the US.
If they move to the US, the cost of their inputs varies 100% week over week, and 2/3rds of their highly skilled factory workers are subject to random imprisonment.
Also, the president will use market manipulation and insider trading schemes to raid their capital reserves, then brag about it on video.
The uncertainty only works to return manufacturing where America is cost-competitive without tariffs, and that's a tiny slice of manufacturing.
You don't. You just give up on that market.
That’s not avoiding the instability, that’s suffering the full brunt of the instability. That’s completely backwards.