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Comment by Majromax | Hacker News Reader

> Trump is crashing the T-note yield to refinance $9T (which is how much US debt is going to mature in 2025) at a lower rate

Even if this were intended (unlikely), destroying $6T of notional stock market value so far to save $270b/yr of interest (if 10-year yields drop by 3%, which hasn't happened yet) is a bad trade.

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National stock market is owned by people, but the national debt is owned (and has to be payed) by the government. Basically, the government is just milking the reach now to lower gov's national debt. Poorer people rather win from this (even if no manufacturers come to U.S. to avoid tariff barriers, which some manufacturers will and which will be another small benefit for the poorer (more jobs)).

Tariffs are incredibly regressive, add in the likely job losses and wage losses, and poorer people are going to be the biggest losers.

Jobs are different; which jobs in your opinion are likely to be lost? I can't think of examples where less-skilled labor workers would lose their jobs as result of tariffs, other than in a case where they were a maid/gardener of some business that went bankrupt by said tariffs.

Give some good examples, please, to support your claim.

Stock is easy to goose back up via QE and/or lower prime rate. Once you lock in those interest rates on debt, though, there's nothing you can do about them. You're also ignoring trade barriers that other countries have, and the fact that we've been offshoring manufacturing capacity for over three decades. What Trump is doing today is what Bernie was advocating in the 00's.

Interest rates are lowered when inflation is low. Inflation is low when supply is high. Tariffs cause supply shortages. Inflation expectations are up. Interest rates will be up.

You're crazy if you think that the trade barriers are over _thirty percent globally_.

Net FDI = trade deficit is an accounting identity. Reshoring and the trade deficit aren't necessarily complementary.

Who cares what Bernie was advocating?

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