Hacker News Reader

Comment by msy | Hacker News Reader

As a developer I think the stats that matter are % of web traffic and app sales, which at least from the last I've seen dramatically lag total android handset sales. That may change but my anecdotal experience are that a lot are sold as upgrades without people really engaging with the additional functionality where as iPhones seem to be an intentional choice for that additional functionality.

View on HN

I think app sales a vastly overrated. In my last 15 years as a software developer, only once did a company pay me to make an application that was sold to people. As a customer, most of the software I use does not cost any money. There are only a few categories where app sales work: mostly consumable items like games or movies. Some tools are doing great as well. But most do not.

Most programs are written for business cases other than getting money from license sales to individuals.

Last year I wrote an Android app for a gambling company that now generates 4.5 million Euro in revenue every single month. And the app is not even in the Play store, you have to download it from a website that is embarrassingly hard to find. And the app can only be used in countries where gamling is legal.

We did not charge 99 cents for the app, and somehow there was money to pay my bills anyway.

Then there is the ebanking app I used today: free. And the hipmunk app I use to search for flights. Free. And the audible app. And the kindle app. And the facebook app. And the ebay app. And the Google Search app. And the wikipedia app. And an information app from my government. And the app that let's me see the TV program.

All free of charge. Still, there is a business model and good money behind almost all of these apps.

Again: there are definitely certain apps that you can sell for money, and statistics about how many people buy apps on each platform are of course interesting.

But app sales are not what makes a platform live or die. What makes a platform live or die is reach.

Android is currently in the hands of most people that own a smartohone. That includes rich people and poor people and those who buy apps and those who don't. If you want to reach people through their smartphones, then you want to make an app that runs on Android.

If this was a real money gambling app, then either (a) the odds were stacked against the player by 1-2%, or (b) there was rake (for non house games like poker), so there was no need to charge for the client.

If you think about it, that's how FTP or Poker Stars works. Download a free client, even play for free for play money, earn money on rake once they convert to 'real money' players.

To be fair to the GP this is typically viewed as an entrepreneur's forum and does not typically focus on finding freelance or contract work. Apps can therefore be sold directly to customer by the developer as a sole-proprietor using Apple or Google's distribution platform. Nevertheless, Android does appear to offer its users more in the way of free apps in the anything goes environment that is Google Play.

Do you have any more details about the gambling app? You've piqued my interest. Feel free to send me an email (it's in my profile) if you don't want to share publicly.

This is almost certainly true, except for the "stats that matter" bit. If you want to sell an app today, iOS is still the platform to target first. But that's not a stable position.

If Android becomes the platform that "everyone" has, then the next disruptive consumer change is, almost by definition, going to happen there. This is largely what happened to the Mac -- the platform that had the best of everything in 1988 was, by 1994, suddenly unable to run all the new toys everyone wanted. When Win95 was released it wasn't even all that technically superior anymore. And by 1998 it was almost dead (and, but for the iPod's success, probably would have died).

That anecdotal experience doesn't match mine, all my friends with Androids have plenty of apps installed, a frequent question I hear from new Android users is 'What are some good apps to install?'. If you look at the Facebook app in Google Play[1] it says it has 100-500 million installs, that's a big chunk of all Android devices.

[1] https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.facebook.k....

Don't be fooled, I know quite a few people (generally older, 50+) who got their iPhones as upgrades and didn't even realize they had browsers until I showed them.

Don't be fooled by your anecdote vs. actual stats.

What actual stats? I'd love to see stats, which ones are you talking about?

http://labs.chitika.com/webplatforms/

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2012/4/i...

I'm not sure these pages really offer evidence one way or the other, but I do agree my anecdote shouldn't be taken as gospel.

Regarding your second link specifically I know lots of folks who stick to using LTE on their Android devices instead of their wifi because LTE is often faster than their home internet, so I'm not sure that showing Android phones are less likely to use WiFi really means anything.

>I know lots of folks who stick to using LTE on their Android devices instead of their wifi

Actually Akamai research confirmed that Android and iPhone are neck to neck for cellular traffic. Because of the iPad wifi traffic for iOS is more than Android but that may change with the release of Nexus 7.

I guess the point is though that if you look at Apps sold and web traffic then you're eliminating users from both platforms that may own the phones but aren't really engaged.

Large groups of people, even technical people, still see these pocket-sized computers as "the thing in my pocket which forces me to speak with people", and just want to ignore it.

I hate when my phone rings.

I agree. 1m android devices doesn't relate directly to 1m iphones sales in app sales, app download, use & web browsing.

The direction does matter and android web traffic is definitely where I can see it.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com