You state this very confidently. Are you shorting Nvidia stock? If not, why not?
Lots of people don’t play the stock market or just invest in funds. It seems like just a way of challenging somebody that looks vaguely clever, or calls them out in a “put your money where your mouth is” sense, but actually presents no argument.
Anyway, if you want to short Nvidia you have to know when their bubble is going to pop to get much benefit out of it, right? The market can remain stupid for longer than you can remain solvent or whatever.
One frustrating aspect of investing is that confident information is tough to come by. It's my take that if you have any (I personally rarely do), you should act on it. So, when someone claims confidently (e.g. with adjectives that imply confidence) that something's going to happen, then that's better than the default.
I don't have the insight the claimer does; my thought is: "I am jealous. I with I could be that confident about a stock's trajectory. I would act on it."
I knew things were bad when a friend of my sister was complaining that her father(a building framer) was not able to get a loan for a 500K house, something that his colleagues had been able to get. It took another 6 months before the collapse started to hit and the banks when up.
Timing is hard.
When I have similarly strong opinions, I do act on it because I enjoy seeing how right or wrong I was. Markets are a harsh, expensive teacher. You either learn a trick or two about uncertainty, overconfidence, humility, etc, or you run out of money.
I think you're better at it than you're letting on even if you decided to not play. You already understand the properties of the game.
Basically, its a really good question to ask, because even in the case that the person doesn't have investments because they don't play the stock market, it shows that they are not motivated enough to actually go short the security, which means that they truly aren't that sure.
Setting an indefinite timeline devalues any claim. You could prove this to yourself using Reductio ad absurdum, or by applying it to various general cases.
Lots of very smart people have lost a lot of money by being completely right about the destination, but wrong about the path and how long it will take to get there.
If you make a habit of this and still lose money, then either you statistically were very unlucky, or did not have a history of being right.
Anyways you'd need some kind of window of when a stock is going to collapse to short it. Good luck predicting this one.
For a short, I think you don't need that strong of a window. For an options combination, yes.