I'm only just learning about this outfit "Sentinel" and I'm not exactly sure how seriously to take them but this line is pretty funny

"On the other hand, we are also mindful of the low baserate for a US administration directly attacking Iran. We also considered modelling the administration as being dispositionally very over the top."

"Briefly, the US has the capacity to decisively win on one or two fronts at a time, so its strategic logic leads it to want to wrap up conflicts in order: put an end to the Ukraine war, and address Iran next, to preserve its ability to respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The logic of its rivals is then the opposite: to tightly coordinate and threaten to expand conflicts on each front so that the US can’t effectively respond to any. This is a path to a world war."

So, if US hit Iran, we have to watch out for escalation from Russia and China.