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Comment by kolanos | Hacker News Reader

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This seems like a reasonable fact check on dairy tarrifs: https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/10/politics/trump-canada-dairy-t...

It seems like a completely misleading "fact check" to me when you actually read the Wikipedia article I linked.

> Those high tariffs kick in only after the US has hit a certain Trump-negotiated quantity of tariff-free dairy sales to Canada each year – and as the US dairy industry acknowledges, the US is not hitting its allowed zero-tariff maximum in any category of dairy product.

1. The USMCA was agreed upon in 2020, but it has largely not taken effect yet as ratification is scheduled for 2026. So the "Trump negotiated" claim is false right out of the gate. Any terms Trump negotiated have not even taken effect yet. We're still under the NAFTA terms.

2. These quotas are very low. The new increased quota scheduled for 2026 is 3.6%. What does this mean? It means for dairy products, the U.S. can only export as much dairy product into Canada until it reaches 3.6% of Canada's total dairy market share. After that, you see 160-300% tariffs applied to those dairy products.

3. The claim that the U.S. is not hitting its dairy tariff maximum is true, but again, this is misleading. The reason for this is that Canada is granting such a small portion of their dairy market to the U.S. (3.6%) that it isn't worthwhile for many U.S. dairy producers to even bother. This is by design. If you can't compete with the other 96.4% of the market without seeing your goods being slapped with up to 300% tariffs, why would you?

> In 2015, the three top dairy imports into Canada were specialty cheeses, milk protein concentrates (MPCs) and whey products. The largest suppliers into Canada were the United States, New Zealand, France and Italy.

That should tell you something? Dairy producers are only exporting specialized dairy products into Canada, including non U.S. ones.

4. The U.S. isn't the only country with a problem with Canada's tariffs. [0]

> Ten dairy industry organisations, including the Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand (DCANZ) and other dairy industry leaders from the US, EU, Argentina, Australia, and Mexico, co-signed a letter to request that their governments intervene in ending Canada's "new and harmful" 'Special Milk Class 7' mechanism by potentially entering a complaint through the WTO's Dispute Settlement System (DSS), a process which could take several years to conclude.

This is just one of many disputes Canada's trading partners have had regarding Canada's protectionist tariff policies.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dairy_and_poultry_supply_manag...

Continually hinting at invasion, of a much smaller neighbour, makes the tariffs not seem like a a trade issue but a test of sovereignty for said neighbour.

It's appropriate to take things seriously under these conditions.

If the US leadership hadn't started threatening Canada, there would almost certainly¹ have been a government open to cutting trade barriers by the end of the year. Canadians haven't been thrilled with some of our protected oligopolies, like groceries and telcos.

¹ https://338canada.com/federal.htm

Seems pretty intellectually dishonest to cherry-pick specific products rather than look at tariff rates as a whole. What's your justification for that?

The World Bank's 2021 data shows that Canada has a 2.35% mean tariff rate weighted across all products, vs 1.47% for the United States.

The United States is an agricultural giant. Seems reasonable to start there?

But I think you're the one being intellectually dishonest by hiding behind these aggregates. The only reason why Canada's tariffs rates are so low is because no trading partner is actually paying their 160-300% tariffs. Canada has been the subject of numerous WTO disputes by numerous nations for their tariff policies, the United States is far from unique in this regard.

USA is not paying any of that, so I would chalk this up to "someone conservative lies again".

How much dairy does the US import from Canada?

Answer: there is essentially no dairy trade between the countries. The US is, of course, free to have a reciprocal tariff policy.

The United States has a trade deficit of 131.38% for dairy products with Canada. [0]

The United States dairy imports from Canada are far from zero, measured in the hundreds of millions.

> United States Imports from Canada of Dairy products, eggs, honey, edible products was US$324.96 Million during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade.

> Cheese and curd $87.54M 2024 > Buttermilk, yogurt, kephir, flavored or not $86.00M 2024 > Whey and milk products not specified elsewhere, flavored or not $55.76M 2024 > Birds' eggs, in the shell, fresh, preserved or cooked $43.37M 2024 > Honey, natural $27.48M 2024 > Milk and cream, not concentrated or sweetened $11.11M 2024 > Birds' eggs, not in shell and yolks, fresh, dry $8.29M 2024 > Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk $3.84M 2024 > Milk and cream, concentrated or sweetened $1.43M 2024 > Edible products of animal origin, not specified elsewhere $144.51K 2024

[0]: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports/canada/da...

The US already has heavy agri subsidies, so it's a completely hypocritical comparison. And a pointless one, as you pointed out.

It's fascinating to watch the spread of official propaganda talking points through online media. This one started two-three weeks ago, presumably from Trump. People who knew nothing about the Canadian dairy market suddenly "experts"

Canada has its own agricultural subsidies, in fact they're almost double that of the U.S. [0]

> The OECD estimated the subsidy equivalent in 2012 (producer support estimate) in all Canadian agriculture represented 18% of the value of the industry with most of this amount going to supply managed sectors which represent only a percentage of Canadian agriculture. Critics say that this results in a "much higher effective subsidy" for supply-managed industries.

> According to Hall Findlay's 2012 study, in the European Union, the effective subsidies were 27%, with the United States at 10%, Australia (6%), New Zealand (1%), Brazil (6%), and China at 9%.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dairy_and_poultry_supply_manag...

... "for supply managed industries"

In the end Canada is a net importer of US agricultural products. By far. Or at least was until last month. The stuff is rotting on the shelves now.

So what's the gripe? We import more food products than we export, and we overwhelmingly consume US agricultural goods.

Just not dairy and eggs (or poultry, I guess)

Is the concern that the US dominance of our economy is not total enough?

Sounds like a justification for annexation, for sure.

> In the end Canada is a net importer of US agricultural products. By far.

This hasn't been remotely true since the early 70's.

Not really, there's zero percent up to a certain level, which historically has never been reached.

Also, that trade deal was negotiated by Trump himself, who called it "the best trade deal in history."

This is at best misleading, but basically disinformation. Here is a better explanation that is also specific to US/CAN trade under USMCA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZvDhayPHxs

The video you posted is itself misleading. For example, the video claims that if the United States were to implement reciprocal tariffs in the same form that Canada places upon the United States that Canada would not pay any tariffs either. Sure, technically if you don't export you won't pay any tariffs. But a reciprocal quota would be devastating for Canadian exports. To avoid equivalent quota tariffs Canada would need to reduce their exports to the U.S. by some 90%. That video completely sidesteps this reality and largely ignores the real effects these supply management quotas have on trade.

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