It is not correct— at least not unless you subscribe to the Copenhagen interpretation. Yet, while this interpretation is a simple heuristic for interaction with big systems (e.g., a photon hits a CCD array), none of the quantum physicists I know treat it seriously (for that matter, I have a PhD in quantum optics theory).
I mean, at some certain level, everything is "just a mathematical representation" - in the spirit of "all models are wrong but some are useful". But the wavefunction is more fundamental than measurement. The other can be thought of as a particle entangling with a system so large that, for statistical reasons, it becomes irreversible - because of chaos, not fundamental rules.
For some materials, I recommend materials on decoherence by WH Zurek, e.g. https://arxiv.org/pdf/quant-ph/0105127. Some other references (here a shameless self ad) in https://www.spiedigitallibrary.org/journals/optical-engineer... - mostly in the introduction and, speaking about interpretations, section 3.7.
EDIT: or actually even simpler toy model of measurement, look at the Schrodinger cat in this one: https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.07840
The exact phase of a wavefunction does not matter - but it is an important phenomenon, giving raise to gauge invariance. The Born rule can be derived. In short, since we use unitary operators, length is preserved. For a derivation, see https://journals.aps.org/pra/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevA.71.05....
Also, to be nitpicky, we also never measure probabilities. Something (macroscopic) happened or not. It gives rise to quite fundamental and philosophical questions, including "what is (classical) probability" (I don't know an answer that fully satisfies me), many world interpretations (maybe all possible things just are), and in general what on indeterminism and free will.
I also don't agree with your comparison of what I said to the nuclear reactions happening inside a star. The problem with the wavefunction without the Born rule is not that it's difficult to observe, it's that it's literally meaningless: knowing the value of the wavefunction for some state of a system doesn't tell you anything at all unless you apply the Born rule to this value.
And as for probabilities, certain kinds of probabilities at least have a very clear and simple definition (though they are rather narrow cases): if you repeat an experiment in exactly the same conditions N times, and an outcome O happens in p/N times and doesn't happen (1-p/N) times, then we define P(O), the probability of outcome O, as the value p/N. For systems where this applies, it is very much a measurable quantity (with some noise, of course, related to the fidelity with which you can reproduce the same experiment).
I do agree that this well-defined, measurable, concept of probability is rarely what we mean by "the probability of O", since (a) it's often hard or impossible to repeat (or even perform) the experiment, and (b) we often care about what will happen the next M times we repeat this experiment, and the measure P(O) I defined above does not tell us anything about future events.
You say you need the Born rule to understand what's going on, for this you don't need it as a fundamental phenomenon, you only need to eventually observe the Born statistics, which is sufficient to provide understanding for you.
Actually, I'll tell you how it was checked: they ran lots of experiments, and confirmed that the probability to find the particle in one state or the other is precisely equal to the norm of the wavefunction of the respective state. Also known as the Born rule.
Now, you can dress this in other language. Some versions of MWI say that the universe splits into many literal worlds after any quantum event, and the number of worlds in which it has a certain outcome is proportional to the norm of the amplitude of the wavefunction of that outcome; based on this, they then derive the Born rule as P(stateA) = num_worlds(stateA) / num_total_worlds = norm(|stateA>). Of course, this is still the Born rule, and it is still not derivable from the wavefunction, still an additional postulate - just with extra steps.
And I don't know what you mean when you say that the Born rule is not statistics: it is exactly statistics (or at least probabilities, if you make a distinction). Sure it's possible to get a million tails in a row, that is always possible in statistics - by definition, any event with probability higher than 0 is possible.
Amplitudes as quantitative properties are sufficient for calculation of statistics. Ironically classical theory of probabilities works the same way: first it assigns arbitrary weight to outcomes, then divides them by the weight of ensemble (usually >1 contrary to QM) to get statistical coefficients. The weights can be scaled by any constant factor, and the calculation still works.
There was an experiment that measured and built a picture of electron orbitals in a water molecule.
What the experiment did NOT do is directly detect the wavefunction of the electron, because that is, again, not a phsycially meaningful quantity.
In the dual slit experiment this is visible as you can't get the interference effects by summing the probabilities for "particle through slit 1" and "particle through slit 2" but rather you need to sum the amplitudes of the processes.
Working physicists (since 100 years) just do this, there is no practical need to interpret it further, but it would be cool if someone could figure out some prediction/experiment mismatch that does indeed require tweaking this!