Yup, just went with the $3 per GB formula.

GPU should be about $200 at TSMC (400-450mm2).

+ about $150 for the pcb, cooler and other stuff, I didn't consider

Times a 1.6 to 1.75 factor if they like actually being profitable (operations, rnd, sales, marketing, ...).

So about $1.5k, I guess.

Multiply that with a .33 "screw the competition" factor and my initial guess is almost spot on.

.

Real problem:

The largest GDDR7 package money can buy right now is 3GB. That's a 1376bit bus right there. GL fitting that to a sub 500mm2 die.

In the future you could put that amount of vram on a 512bit bus, tho.

Also normal DDR is getting really fast atm. 8 channel can already challenge most vram configurations. Maybe it's time soon to switch back to swappable memory.