https://research.baidu.com/Blog/index-view?id=89
I am excited to see Baidu catchup. It feels like they have earned it. Being very early.
https://research.baidu.com/Blog/index-view?id=89
I am excited to see Baidu catchup. It feels like they have earned it. Being very early.
From 2016-17 I did a projection using our scaling law equation with my coauthors about how many GPUs it would take to train an LLM with a step function in capability. Joel Hestness in particular did excellent experimental work to enable this.
I came out with a projection of about a $1 Billion GPU budget.
Baidu was in the middle of downsizing the US research center (SVAIL) in favor of AI in China and I was participating in the layoff of many of my colleagues while trying to keep the lights on long enough to finish our scaling law experiments, which I personally thought would change the world.
I actually wrote a report to Robin explaining the implications of scaling laws and asking for a $1 billion budget to train a Baidu LLM in 2016 and sat on it through 2017.
But I never sent it because I thought it would never have been supported in that environment. I sometimes wonder what Robin would have thought about it and how the world may have been different if Baidu had released ChatGPT.
We may be about to find out because the AI moat filled with simple algorithms and scale seems to be much more shallow than the processor and systems moat.
I have a huge amount of respect for Dario and Ilya for carrying on scaling laws at OpenAI or it may have never seen the light of day.
If there is one problem for the AI community to solve by 2030 I think it is the moat problem.
I’m excited but most people are patriotic and I feel things like this or even the whole situation with BYD producing better cars then Tesla is something people take as an attack to their identity. If not an attack it’s definitely represents an eroding of their patriotic identity.
Unfortunately Trump can’t slap a tariff on this. Maybe he can ban it like he was going to do with TikTok? The US really needs to get off its high horse and not associate its identity with being the sole economic super power in the world.
Would you prepare for such a future by banning TikTok and placing tariffs on all goods like BYD cars? I would say no. Those acts are done out of patriotism.
This might sound weird, but in Latin America a lot of people see the U.S in a similar way that Europeans see Russia.
My workplace is over 50% Hispanic out on the warehouse floor. They are here because they prefer America, not because they hate it.
U.S is an economic powerhouse, Russia isn't. So yes, U.S attracts worldwide immigration. And of course, who goes to the U.S, already go there because... like it. If they didn't liked it, they wouldn't go.
But Latin America population is almost 700 million. Those who go to the U.S are a small minority, and specially from countries that are very much, to be kind, not going well, so they see the U.S as an example to be followed, like the Cubans and Venezuelans in the U.S.
But Latin America isn't only them.
I suggest checking some polls on the subject on China/US, and you'll see majority of latin americans have positive opinion about China¹, with numbers actually similar in some countries to the U.S. While 16% have positive opinions about China in the U.S, it's 61% in Chile.
And of course, I'm not even considering the governments here, which I think should be the main point, as they are the one who will drive the countries relations.Most Latin America governments, see the U.S as a country that would never let another economic world power rise in the Americas continent. Majority of Brazilians believe that Brazil should reduce use of Dollar², and Trump made specific threats to countries that try to avoid dollar.
This view is actually very widespread, but is worse between leftists, the leftists in most part of Latin America are more what we call "Anti-american", because of U.S Operation Condor that imposed right-wing dictatorships in the region. And it goes even newer, as Brazilian former President's Dilma Rousseff was spied back during Obama terms. That was discovered in 2013 or so.
The whole Trump U.S thing in Panama it's because of the growing influence China was getting there, too.
[1] https://x.com/maps_black/status/1884036385272983709 [2] https://atlasintel.org/polls/latam-pulse
BYD being better than Tesla isn't a matter of patriotism in most of the world. DeepSeek and Baidu can spend as long as they want playing musical chairs/rap battles with Anthropic and OpenAI, it makes no odds to me which wins.
America and China both have politics that have no reason to care for people like me, nor people like my friends, that they are for different reasons and differ in penalties for being an out-group doesn't matter when I'm a foreigner to both, when my antecedent are who the 13 Colonies rebelled against and more recent antecedent forced unwanted opium sales on China.
Democracy has its flaws, but one of the features that most people prefer is that it can significantly change how it looks and operates to reflect the will of its people without violence.
And historically many of the greatest eras under Ancient Greece and Rome were under autocratic systems that advanced humanity by essentially every single metric. For that matter China has been among the most powerful countries in the world countless times - yet I think relatively few would ever know this because it's always been a quite insular nation, and never pursued hegemony in the same way as Western empires. Of course that could change but it seems extremely unlikely. Pursuing the perpetuation of global hegemony has been anything but fruitful for the US, and it should be a great lesson for the rest of the world. Those times, not just of the US - but of any global hegemon, are probably behind us.
https://theconversation.com/mombasa-port-how-kenyas-auditor-...
"In December 2018, a leaked letter from the Kenyan auditor-general’s office sparked a rumour that Kenya had staked its bustling Mombasa Port as collateral for the Chinese-financed Standard Gauge Railway. Our new research shows why the collateral rumour is wrong."
LLM much?
[1] https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2021/04/05/imf-austerity-is-alive-and... and https://academic.oup.com/book/11959?login=false
[2] https://accountinginsights.org/austerity-principles-economic...
Which one?
Internally, maybe. But China becoming a de facto supowerpower doesn't mean everyone else becomes Chinese any more than America being a superpower means everyone else becomes American. The salient point for most people is how that superpower balances the carrot of trade and the stick of violence to maintain its hegemony. To that end the US has far worse of a track record than does China.
Unless the implication is that China intends to directly colonize Western countries, which is something only the US is currently threatening to do.
As in the last 40-50 years is has been the US and western countries that have been involved in bringing down democracies that had slightest socialist tendencies and propped up dictatorships that allowed the companies to exploit the countries resources. So it is not about the type of government rather the type of economy.
Its economy absolutely is private capital. What it has shown is the dictator is still stronger than the private capital and will react to any threats to the dictator with violence (see: Jack Ma)
> As in the last 40-50 years is has been the US and western countries that have been involved in bringing down democracies that had slightest socialist tendencies and propped up dictatorships that allowed the companies to exploit the countries resources. So it is not about the type of government rather the type of economy.
Ahhh, yes, the Great War of 2021 when the US invaded Sweden, Finland, and Norway for having governments in power that have far more than “even the slightest socialist tendencies”.
No, the Great Stupidity of 2025, when the US started officially endorsing the extreme right-wing in the EU and calling for its dismantlement.
Massive labor force unrivaled by any in the world, all working to elevate 1 country.
Allowing capitalism, a competent government, and sheer volume of people - all critical to making their rise possible.
China and the US are obviously very different culturally in just about every way possible. This difference makes for great competition. Someone in another topic mentioned something that seemed pretty insightful to me - in that where LLM companies failed in the US was in basically becoming clones of each other, whereas DeepSeek (and now perhaps Baidu) were going in a different way, and that way turned out to be better.
US companies will inevitably copy these strategies, one way or the other, as will Chinese companies copy what ends up working well from the US (see their latest rockets looking more than a little inspired by Starship). And the true competitiveness ensures in the end that the main people who will win will not be whichever guy ended up founding an AI company first, but you and I. It's how capitalism is supposed to work - companies beat themselves down into a race to the bottom, and society reaps the rewards. It only gets really messed up when there's no "real" competition, which is an increasingly frequent state of affairs. But that definitely will not be the case here.
Expect the same thing from India in the future as well. Their economy is advancing rapidly, and soon enough we're going to have another 1.4 billion people able to fully utilize the outliers such a population entails to similarly drive things forward in their own unique way. It's a great future for the world as a whole.
and don't start on some dictator BS. the US does/has done as many, if not more, bad things as china.