True. The point however is to understand how to quantify the risk. The complicating factor in this case is surely the fact that he had received explicit assurances that his development was welcome and would be supported. The thing I don't understand is how you would go about assessing the 'distribution advantage' given the fact that the risk is evidently so hard to evaluate. DC has evidently now come to the conclusion that it is too risky for him no matter what the advantage. I am curious to better understand your thinking on how to weigh advantage against risk.