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Comment by TheAlchemist | Hacker News Reader

The problem, and it's a big one, is that getting rid of Musk, would mean that the stock craters 90% at least.

If that happens, Tesla will be sued into oblivion once Musk is gone and everybody realizes that they are nowhere near rolling out real FSD and Optimus.

One thing is sure - they are effectively done in EU, and the damage seems to be very substantial in the US too. In China, they just got outcompeted by cheaper and better alternatives. Let's see how a carmaker with installed capacity which exceeds sales by a factor of 3 or 4 manages to survive.

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> The problem, and it's a big one, is that getting rid of Musk, would mean that the stock craters 90% at least.

Its down 45% YTD, and >50% from the high last year. I agree there is more to run before Elon is out, but not 90% more.

It's a medium sized car company with shrinking sales still valued like the rest combined. Without a prophet at the helm that makes them the obvious (to adherents) #1 autonomy company and clear personal robot monopoly, there can easily still be 90% drawdown from here

On way to think about it, is that if Tesla crashes 90% from here, it would STILL be more valuable than GM or Ford.

"getting rid of Musk, would mean that the stock craters 90% at least."

Come on, that's a absurd statement.

If you value it like General Motors, the share price should be around $20. If you value it like a "tech company" with the margins that entails, it should be around $60. If it craters 90% from its high around ~$400+, that puts it between those two numbers.

Its primary product is stock, and most of that comes from Musk's ability to just say things that aren't true and have people believe him. Without him, you need to value it more like a regular company.

Why? The company is insanely overvalued based on its fundamentals. Elon's hardcore investor fans are the only reason the stock is worth anything near what it is.

Is it ? Can you argue a bit here ?

From my perspective, Tesla is at >100 P/E ratio based on last year. Next year they will probably be loosing money given how sales are cratering everywhere. Some people see it as a software company - in reality it's a carmaker, employing >100k people. These people will have nothing to do next year for half of their time.

Tesla fans themselves say that it's not longer a car company - it's AI / Robots company. Does this view will still stand without Elon ?

Sure... no question it would go down. 90%? He isn't that important.

I'll pull my own prediction out of thin air: Maybe the stock value will actually increase.

I'm really curious why you say he isn't that important. Could you elaborate, how you view the following Tesla business with / without Musk ?

Car sales

Robotaxi

Optimus

Energy

Isn't optimus an nVidia thing?

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