The stock market falls by 10% or more on average every 1.2 years: https://www.covenantwealthadvisors.com/post/understanding-st....
There were 5 such drops in 2020, 4 in 2022, and 1 in 2023. Somehow, the nation avoided ruin during those periods.
There were 5 such drops in 2020, 4 in 2022, and 1 in 2023. Somehow, the nation avoided ruin during those periods.
IIRC, the drops in 2022 correlated with federal interest rate hikes and other federal policies designed to help ease inflation, with the expectation that markets would rapidly cool but avoid a larger overall crash.
Simply put, a 10% drop isn't in itself concerning if correlated with shifting market conditions. It is when those in charge are foot-gunning the market with their policies, and then threatening to double down in the face of the 10% drop they caused.
2020 was a serious recession; the nation may have avoided ruin, but many people did not
Come on, look at your numbers. Recession in 2020 with 5 blips on the monitor. Last quarter we saw negative real GDP Q1 ‘22, 4 blips. 1 blip in ‘23 and none in ‘24 while the economy did so well prices overheated.
Now we’re seeing 1 blip in Q1. If we annualise that to 4 blips, it puts us back in the last year in which we had a single quarter with negative real GDP growth.
And what the numbers show is that a 10% drop happens on average every 1.2 years and is not something that needs Congress to get involved in every time it happens.
If you can't tolerate 10% drops on a regularly occurring basis, the answer is not to beg Congress for help, it is to invest in something safer with lower returns.
You’re averaging a non-averageable time series.
> If you can't tolerate 10% drops on a regularly occurring basis
The point is to look at data together. A 10% drop on its own isn’t much. A 10% drop alongside crashing ISM indices and the President being noncommittal on a coming recession is another.
Is the market done dropping?