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JKCalhoun

With talk of a anticipated 10% to 20% drop in the markets, their silence could be ruinous.

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SP500 is already down 10% in the last month

> SP500 is already down 10% in the last month

Not yet. Nasdaq is in correction, but the S&P is only down 8.6% from its 19 February high of 6,144 [1]. (5,529.)

[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-falls-back-into-cor...

Yes. I eyeballed it at roughly 9% earlier and rounded up. My point stands. We're already pretty much in the ballpark of what GP cited.

As of today S&P has given up all gains since the election, and then some.

Or they are silently buying the dip till the midterms.

2 years of a 'dip' is, ummm, not just a dip, right?

NASDAQ is already down 11.5% in the last month.

They're busy trying to pass a continuing resolution on Republican-only votes the keep the government open.

Because heaven forbid both parties compromise.

The compromise between fucking insanity and good governance is not agreeing to go half way into fucking insanity.

Meeting an unreasonable person half-way is giving them a blank cheque to become more unreasonable.

All it does is tell them that you're a sucker.

Depends on what cards one is holding.

Getting half of what one wants and not being driven off a cliff can be preferable to smiling in moral smugness while the car arcs through the air.

Past behavior of this administration strongly predicts that your reward for kowtowing to its value-compromising demands... Is becoming the target of further value-compromising demands.

It doesn't engage in positive-sum games.

It doesn't have to.

Strictly in terms of self-interest, sometimes compromise can be the optimal move.

If they're willing to self-harm for the cause, then the optimal move is to grab the wheel and yank it yourself to change direction and stop the car from careening off the cliff.

Or at minimum, not gas it up.

> smiling in moral smugness while the car arcs through the air

Sorry, why is this metaphorical car arcing through the air again? What's that all about?

I’m sorry there is only one party which is consistently doesn’t compromise at all. It’s a party of bullies and it’s a party which brought us here (and will bring us somewhere much worse). I’m afraid by now the only option forward don’t compromise with them at all, they understand only power.

> trying to pass a continuing resolution on Republican-only votes the keep the government open

They can’t. They need Democrats in the Senate [1].

It should honestly fail without a provision defunding and deauthorising DOGE.

[1] https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/03/10/congress/jo...

One of the big questions is what happens to all the money Congress has allocated?

The budget keeps allocations the same, but now that for example Mark Rubio announced USAID is to be entirely eliminated, it's remaining 15% of programs moved into State Department, what happens to that money? https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-rubio-usaid-foreign-ai...

Expectations are that it's just treated as a giant slush fund for whatever the executive feels like. Whether Dems do anything to curb DOGE's chainsawing act or whether they try to wrestle with what happens to these "savings" is something Dems have a chance right now to tangle with, and much less leverage in the future. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/will-dems-pick-up-their...

The stock market falls by 10% or more on average every 1.2 years: https://www.covenantwealthadvisors.com/post/understanding-st....

There were 5 such drops in 2020, 4 in 2022, and 1 in 2023. Somehow, the nation avoided ruin during those periods.

> There were 5 such drops in 2020, 4 in 2022, and 1 in 2023. Somehow, the nation avoided ruin during those periods

Come on, look at your numbers. Recession in 2020 with 5 blips on the monitor. Last quarter we saw negative real GDP Q1 ‘22, 4 blips. 1 blip in ‘23 and none in ‘24 while the economy did so well prices overheated.

Now we’re seeing 1 blip in Q1. If we annualise that to 4 blips, it puts us back in the last year in which we had a single quarter with negative real GDP growth.

I am looking at the numbers.

And what the numbers show is that a 10% drop happens on average every 1.2 years and is not something that needs Congress to get involved in every time it happens.

If you can't tolerate 10% drops on a regularly occurring basis, the answer is not to beg Congress for help, it is to invest in something safer with lower returns.

> a 10% drop happens on average every 1.2 years

You’re averaging a non-averageable time series.

> If you can't tolerate 10% drops on a regularly occurring basis

The point is to look at data together. A 10% drop on its own isn’t much. A 10% drop alongside crashing ISM indices and the President being noncommittal on a coming recession is another.

You seem weirdly determined to ignore all context in a discussion about markets.

> And what the numbers show is that a 10% drop happens on average every 1.2 years

Is the market done dropping?

Nearly every market worldwide was dropping in 2020 due to the pandemic.

IIRC, the drops in 2022 correlated with federal interest rate hikes and other federal policies designed to help ease inflation, with the expectation that markets would rapidly cool but avoid a larger overall crash.

Simply put, a 10% drop isn't in itself concerning if correlated with shifting market conditions. It is when those in charge are foot-gunning the market with their policies, and then threatening to double down in the face of the 10% drop they caused.

> Somehow, the nation avoided ruin during those periods.

2020 was a serious recession; the nation may have avoided ruin, but many people did not

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