What happens to the tech world if it turns out that LLMs really are the 20-billion dollar product category that every industry needs to explore to maintain competitiveness but they will never be the 500-billion dollar product category that changes the world?
You still have a huge build-up and a bust? Earlier real products, from railroads to the Internet, have followed this pattern.
Even more, AI has a plausible-sounding argument for being a 500b product or even $infinity dollars. I don't think it's correct with current tech but it's wrongness rests on subtle things. People who seem at least as smart as Gary Marcus (AI critic) seem honestly convinced this AI generation of is going to create AGI. An investor who doesn't know who's right is going to want to cover their bets.