I doubt he will, I'd think it would be to curry favor with the crypto crowd, but I don't think they have a lot of love for Bankman-Fried. But it's a spicy administration so it's not a 0% chance. Maybe a 1% to 5% chance.

SBF's money is just as good as anyone else's.

He also stopped the invastigation against the corrupt Major Adams (D), after he more or less swore allegiance to him...

He did start to donate more to Republicans, by 2022 it was quite even.

Trump does not care if you used to openly hate him. If you pledge allegiance to him, he is cool with it. Might need a small bribe, depending on the case.

I don't know if Trump will pardon him but I also wouldn't be surprised. Doing things simply to spite liberals, no matter how stupid they are, is one of his few guiding principles. Most liberals correctly think the SBF should be in prison and some percentage would get vocally upset about a blatant criminal walking free for no reason.

It's not the strongest case for SBF so I don't know if it will happen, but I'd put it at more like 30-40% than the something like 1-5%.

While Trump is clearly a vengeful person who holds grudges, I do believe if he sees a good deal in front of him, he'll set those feelings aside.

Whether or not pardoning SBF would be a good deal for him is another question, though.

You don’t understand Trump’s transactional instinct.

If this guy offered to pay him $5B at some point, maybe he will have a better offer later? It’s best to pardon him and see what he comes up with. As long as he’s motivated by “how can I pay more money to DJT,” it doesn’t matter who else he tried to bribe.