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Comment by tromp | Hacker News Reader

If this really has the potential to compete with Ozempic, then it should have a noticeable impact on Novo Nordisk's stock value [1], but we're not seeing that yet.

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVO/

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The article refers to results in animals which means it is probably years - maybe a decade - from being approved. Novo’s patent protection expires in 2033 [0] so it could be that the market is not yet worried about a potential competitor that likely won’t get to market before the IP protection runs out.

[0]: https://www.reddie.co.uk/2024/08/30/the-year-of-ozempic-an-i...

And Novo (like many others) is already working on next-generation GLPs that’ll have new patent protection before Ozempic’s ends.

Even so, competition from other GLP-1 drugs and generic semaglutide should make prices and profits lower.

If the companies combined can meet demand

They seem to be able to offer it at $300 if you pay without insurance. The implication being that they make 50 extra bucks because the insurance company only pays $250 for your $1,000 prescription.

I am reminded of the economist that wouldn't pick up a $20 bill at his feet because if there was a $20 bill at his feet the market would have already picked it up.

I really, really don't think that's a reasonable metric, especially on short timelines.

In a few years, when this has been trialed, approved, there are a few manufacturers? Maybe.

"The market" contains people like my dad who asked me if I knew about deepseek... 3 weeks ago...

The market is intelligent in the aggregate. In particular this means it's slow to adapt to new information and trends.

This assumes that NN won't snap it up themselves.

Indeed, if this becomes a threat I fully expect one of either Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly to buy them out.

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