Not to take away from your accurate point about oil, but I think it's silly to say the "we're still in the cold war" crowd were out of touch in this of all threads.
Russia is no longer the big bad guy it used to be. Before the war, they had a crumbling economy the size of Italy's.
And you can see a premature declaration of victory along similar lines from the Russian state media, which was then taken down when Ukraine did not in fact fold in three days: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60562240. You can see the archive.org capture of the original article linked there if you wish to see the primary source.
Yes, their GDP is weak (nevertheless, Russia persists). No, it doesn't make any sense if you look at it through a normal Western lens, which is why there was widespread disbelief that Russia was to imminently invade Ukraine. But, as the saying goes, "Russia can't be understood by the mind alone"