The Chinese are strategic and patient. They just need to wait a few more years until they are able to blockade the entire island for long period of time. Then they can potentially take the island without firing a single shot. they don’t need to take on this kind of risk right now.
This is a very important point. While China's military is huge and technologically advanced, it is structured very differently from western powers. To reduce the risk of a military coup, the PRC split up control of air, ground, and naval units, making it difficult to conduct joint operations. China's military is also structured more like the Soviet system, where decisions are made at the highest levels of command and lower levels are given little discretion. Information going up and down the chain of command can be delayed, ignored, or corrupted. This is inefficient in peacetime and can be disastrous in combat.
In contrast, most western powers have military branches that combine air, ground, and water forces (the US Army is the second-largest air force in the world, behind the US Air Force), and they are organized in a manner that encourages joint operations. Western militaries also push decisions to the lowest level possible, allowing forces to quickly adapt to changing conditions in combat.
Lastly, China has limited air refueling capability. This reduces the range and effectiveness of their air units. To reach targets far away, aircraft must carry external fuel tanks, compromising stealth, speed, and maneuverability.
It is for these reasons that China is very hesitant to test their military against any modern force. They're trying to fix these issues, but the PRC can't adopt the west's organizational style without making themselves vulnerable to a military coup, which (so far) they absolutely refuse to do.
I still think Xi Jinping fears his people far more than Putin ever did. There's a huge powerful class of people who made tons of money off global trade in China, not just a few token Oligarchs from the 1990s like in Russia. They are the worlds factory, with a love of money and success. A global conflict is not something their people would easily stomach. While Russians seem to revel in their ability to withstand poverty and backwards systems I'm skeptical the same cultural malaise exists in China, even if they have strong national character (on paper).
I don't share this view. China needs only a couple more (2-3) carriers and to arm enough H-6K's with anti-ship missiles to keep US capital ships at bay and they'll have all the tools they need to blockade and conquer Taiwan, perhaps without firing a shot. All of that will be in place in only a couple years; probably before Trump's term ends.
Satellite imagery exposed China's has new landing barges at the Guangzhou Shipyard. These barges, equipped with 120-meter-long bridges and stabilizing pylons to land troops and vehicles on Taiwan's rugged coastlines by creating mobile ports[1]
You don't build these things if you don't need them. they have no other use except invasion.
1. https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/built...
...On the other hand, if they want to take Taiwan with a low probability of the U.S. intervening, it's hard to imagine a better time than right now.
One of the lessons Xi might have taken from Russia's war on Ukraine is that Putin made a tactical blunder by not invading during Trump's first term. Without the Biden administration's active support of Ukraine, Putin would likely have been more successful.
It's hard to guess probabilities on these sorts of things, but the current situation makes me uncomfortable.
(For what it's worth, the likelihood of a major Cascadia fault earthquake happening during the Trump administration is something that we can estimate the probability of, and even though it's not particularly high, it also makes me uncomfortable as an Oregonian.)
I can imagine Trump accepting that kind of deal, and it’s probably still cheaper than war for China.
There is absolutely no risk whatsoever.
Everyone noticed trump behavior with zelinsky, Chinese too. It might instead push up their agenda to conquer Taiwan quickly before trump mandate end, or at least fund him to put up with a third mandate.
Which is something he had been talking a lot.
Trump loves speaking about cards, Xi is the guy holding all the cards, and keep you guessing.