The chances of there being a “convict Trump” supermajority in the Senate after the midterms is basically zero — Dems would need to win all but two of the Senate seats up, or there’d need to be GOP defections.
That will lead to a titanic struggle between the executive branch and the rest, given the past history of Trump setting an armed mob onto Washington. He got away with it that time of course because he wasn't that unpopular. If the economy tanks that crutch is gone. People didn't vote for him because they liked him. They voted against the poor shmuck who happened to be in power when the hangover created by the COVID money bazooka came home to roost. Every democracy that held an election in 2024 did the same thing.
If that happens we will see the if the balance of powers the US founders put into the constitution work. I expect they will, but it will be highly entertaining to watch. From the relative safety of Australia.
It took 4 years for ill effects of the 2020 bazooka to take effect. If the effects of Trumps actions doesn't effect the economy within 2 years, I wouldn't be betting on Congress doing anything.
It would take more than a recession. It would take a Great Depression-scale economic event. That's not impossible (and ironically, if it did happen, it would not be solely his fault), but I don't think any of these economists are expecting it. A recession would cause Congress to shift, but the first removal of a President would require an utter economic catastrophe.
Also, note that the person replacing him would be largely identical.
"Senators Murkowski and Collins, after a private meeting with President Trump, say their concerns have been addressed. Senator Murkowski said, 'He promised he wouldn't do it again so I don't really see much point in impeachment.'"
They'll still be afraid of physical risks, like death threats or a Jan 6 incident again.