Economists are starting to worry about a serious Trump recession
telegraph.co.uk
telegraph.co.uk
You can see this very clearly with Liz Truss; despite both her and Kwarteng being well-known to favour bonkers-economics, her _election_ was kind of greeted with a shrug. It was only after she actually produced her pseudo-budget that people suddenly went "wait, wtf, she's actually doing it?!" and chaos broke out.
Unfortunately, the US may find it significantly more difficult to de-Trump itself than the UK did to eject Truss.
As for the image of the US abroad, it's already broken.
The chances of there being a “convict Trump” supermajority in the Senate after the midterms is basically zero — Dems would need to win all but two of the Senate seats up, or there’d need to be GOP defections.
"Senators Murkowski and Collins, after a private meeting with President Trump, say their concerns have been addressed. Senator Murkowski said, 'He promised he wouldn't do it again so I don't really see much point in impeachment.'"
They'll still be afraid of physical risks, like death threats or a Jan 6 incident again.
That will lead to a titanic struggle between the executive branch and the rest, given the past history of Trump setting an armed mob onto Washington. He got away with it that time of course because he wasn't that unpopular. If the economy tanks that crutch is gone. People didn't vote for him because they liked him. They voted against the poor shmuck who happened to be in power when the hangover created by the COVID money bazooka came home to roost. Every democracy that held an election in 2024 did the same thing.
If that happens we will see the if the balance of powers the US founders put into the constitution work. I expect they will, but it will be highly entertaining to watch. From the relative safety of Australia.
It took 4 years for ill effects of the 2020 bazooka to take effect. If the effects of Trumps actions doesn't effect the economy within 2 years, I wouldn't be betting on Congress doing anything.
It would take more than a recession. It would take a Great Depression-scale economic event. That's not impossible (and ironically, if it did happen, it would not be solely his fault), but I don't think any of these economists are expecting it. A recession would cause Congress to shift, but the first removal of a President would require an utter economic catastrophe.
Also, note that the person replacing him would be largely identical.
Now, what would be interesting is that they surely would ignore the summons, which would invoke a Constitutional crisis.
> The Economic Club of Chicago’s membership is a curated composition of business and civic leaders [...] With 2,400 members representing every industry in Chicago, 70 percent of our members are C-suite executives.
They also should have seen through this BS but were presumably thinking about how they personally would benefit from tax cuts and lax regulation.
Mainstream economists were fairly consistent on Trump's economic ideas.