If they still are at this level in 2-3 years, then yeah, it will likely cause a bunch of bad downstream effects. But at least recognize that it is still a few years too early to judge.
Yes? For very small values of 'mountain'.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/1hun3e4/my_little_...
I was just wowing to myself the other day that a local 70b 4q 40GB model on my Mac basically replaces Wikipedia for me and can be used offline in an airplane. A whole library can be replaced with a cube of knowledge that is just a wrapper around an LLM.
Of course there is going to be resistance to any move up, there has never not been resistance.
So until we can have these models locally, running at 10-20token /sec minimum...
I am fairly hype up over gen AI but we are only at the start of this revolution, and will require a few more years for niche domains, or company knowledge (RAG doesn't cut it, fine tuning too expensive) and we aren't tackling all the media related.
And because of hallucinations,which they require to work, they can't be reliable at 100% or be truly use without supervision.
I feel it looks like internet back in the 90s, we were saying it as a new way to connect people, share knowledge, only to have echo chambers and porn distribution as few take away. I kid I kid.
Also, people bought books to read them outside of the context of universities.
https://opencontent.org/blog/archives/6104
> Before the printing press, faculty had to assume that none of their students had books. This led to a widely adopted practice known as dictation, in which faculty slowly read out the text for students so that they could make their own handwritten copies. (This was, of course, not the only mode of instruction. But it was a common one.) Blair writes that dictation was widely believed to have pedagogical merit, as “the act of copying out a text was often considered an essential part of mastering it” (p. 46). She provides a wide range of support for this view, going all the way back to Demosthenes and St. Jerome. However, others argued that dictation hurt student learning as the focus on writing distracted students from paying closer attention to the faculty themselves. (Presumably no one likes to stand in front of an audience and have them all looking down at their phones parchment the entire time.)
> You may be unsurprised to learn that there is a strong economic undercurrent to the conversation about dictation, and that it often pit students against faculty and others. Blair notes that students saw it as “a cheaper way of procuring oneself a classroom text” (p.45). Consequently, a ban on dictations by Arts Faculty at the University of Paris in 1355 “anticipated vehement student resistance to the ban.”
Wasn't the same thing when we switched from books to web? We lost the ability for long reads, and instead just search and click directly to specific information, losing the larger context. And we adapted, we have a whole search culture, reputation systems, new patterns of interaction with information.
However the extent that the web could replace your work is very minimal because you’d be copy/pasting some existing untailored source. Now, we can take your tailored question / task and have it just completed for you. Doing is a huge part of learning, and if you don’t do, you won’t learn.
The comment was about "you're not going to know anything because the LLM is doing it for you" which is easily obviously true. This won't stop anyone from getting a PhD or a high salary. It will just stop them from knowing things, and possibly being able to build cool stuff (specifically in the example of software dev), though even then you could argue that a good working knowledge of how to prompt an LLM is roughly as performant as a good working knowledge of a software language.
Not obviously true to me. LLMs don’t know everything, so they can’t solve all problems. You can try and give it the proper context but you still need to understand the context is necessary, which requires knowledge.
Kids who grow up today will understand and intuit that synthesizing 3 facts from an article doesn’t constitute “work” any more than multiplying 4-digit numbers. Adults will eventually pick up on this as well.
I've seen this in coding, where as an experienced coder I can spot where the LLM is doing bad things, but if I try using it in a language or environment I'm not familiar with, I get lots of errors that I don't understand how to fix and all I can do is feed back the errors to the LLM and hope it does better next time.
So I guess my point is that if we end up using LLMs for everything then we have a chicken & egg problem - LLMs don't work for beginners, but beginners don't learn anything while they're using LLMs because they can't get past basic errors.
Your point about multiplying 4-digit numbers would be valid if calculators often made basic maths mistakes, and you can only really use them if you already know the approximate answer so you can detect when they've made a mistake.
I think you’re vastly overestimating the amount of work people either want to do or pay for. A worse version that’s nearly free or instant will win regardless of limitations the majority of the time.