I think it's already clear that these are going to be commoditized and the free / open source versions will be good enough to capture enough of the value that the remaining players will not be Facebook-level monopolies on the space
I quite like the idea of a future where the AI job holocaust largely never happened because license costs ate up most of the innovation benefit. It's just the kind of regressive greed that keeps the world ticking along and wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with something very close to this
Also, the pool of public domain data is always increasing, so the AI will eventually win in any case, even if we have to wait 100 years
But one thing this reminds me of is the idea of a "trap street", something mapmakers used to do was put in false locations on their maps to prove that other mapmakers were copying them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trap_street . I figure you could do something similarly adversarial with AI to pollute the public training data on the internet. IDK like adversarial attacks on image classifiers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOZw1tgD8dA . With an LLM you could try to make them into a manchurian candidate.
Not quite realistic. You are talking about very huge benefits, in favor of which licenses will be abandoned. And who don't abandoned them... I mean you can look at the Amish settlements.
Not everyone has to know about, understand, or use open source solutions for it to open the field.
You need to pay energy bill, do the update/upgrade and you need to build a LLM rig.
Nvidias Digits Project could be very interesting, but this box will cost 3k.
We are a lot closer to running it at home than i assumed we would but plenty of people prefer SaaS over doing stuff themselves.
This is just a weird dichotomy you're introducing. Open source will introduce price pressure as any competition will - that doesn't mean you won't have a monopoly.
Idk what you mean by saying this doesn't preclude a monopoly - having your pricing power eroded by competition is kinda one of the key features of what a monopolistic market isn't
A monopoly means a company has enough leverage to corner and disproportionately own the market. This is entirely possible (and usually the case) even with significant pricing pressure.
Feels like I won't be paying for anything that isn't real-time. And that any time delay I can introduce in my process will come with massive savings. Picture hiding the loading of loot info behind a treasure chest opening animation in a game, except that time difference means you can pull all the work in-house.
Openrouter.ai seems like a step in the right direction but I'd want to do all their calculations myself as well as factor in local/existing gear in a way they don't.
Right now the average person has to go through a vendor with a web app, there's not a lot of room for the public to explore.
Things could change in a hurry.
I don't think we expect a company to exist solely making a proprietary web server anymore and be a behemoth of 300B. OpenAi might end up at the same model as Nginx or Docker if they don't pivot or find a different model.