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Comment by jordanmorgan10 | Hacker News Reader

This reads as someone who looks at data but doesn’t actually play basketball, coach basketball or generally know basketball. Numbers can only tell you so much, and 2025 Celtics and the rise of Steph have led to more 3s but the sport of basketball is not as predictable as the author suggests. For example, look at the college game, which doesn’t reflect this trend as much as the NBA does.

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It's basically just seems like a riff off of a Bloomberg article published yesterday, titled "The NBA Has Fallen Into an Efficiency Trap", without any of the details in the article, besides the 3-pointer trend chart, which is basically a carbon copy. I'm not even sure this article is suggestive of someone simply looking at the data. Given the close timing, they probably just read the Bloomberg article, or a different blog inspired by the Bloomberg article, as opposed to just coming to this conclusion as a NBA aficionado.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-14/forget-do...

you read the article? where did you see college in it?

there is absolutely no sport today that is as predictable as nba. check this next thursday 2/20, boston is playing philly

- boston will score between 108 and 125 points

- they will attempt between 48 and 58 3's

- they will make betwee 19 and 25 of them

I can make another 5 of these, they will be true as it is always all the same these days

Yes, I did read the article. If you feel so confident about your predictions and are so sure of the author’s claims, why not put a bet down on that.

While you’re at it, do it for “another 5” and let me know how you get on.

betting is a sin, I am not a sinner

I think they are talking strictly about the NBA.

College players are much more inconsistent because they're younger and less experienced. There are not many 20 year olds you can depend on to consistently make 3s. There are also a lot more teams which spreads the talent pool around. In my opinion, it amounts to a more exciting product to watch, even if it's less polished.

Yes, I agree. Love the college game. I think people don’t realize how talented NBA players really are, which sounds crazy to type - but I believe its true.

There probably are as many 20 year old college kids who can hit threes as there are pros who can hit them, but they are spread over many more teams.

Unless you have a correctable mechanical problem with your shot, the ability to hit a three point basket is more of a natural ability than a learned skill. Those guys just have incredibly good hand-eye coordination.

3 point line is also closer in college

True, but there are college players who can hit from pro range.

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