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> as far as I can see it's the amount and quality of training data that counts

Well there's your reason. OS code is not as in demand or prevalent as crud web app code, so there's less relevant data to train your models on.

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The OS code that exists is much higher quality so the signal to noise ratio is much better

I think arguably there's still a quantity issue, but I'm no expert on LLMs. Plus I hear the windows source code is a bit of a nightmare. But for every windows there's a TempleOS I suppose.

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