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Comment by willvarfar | Hacker News Reader

> This suggests that Huawei's AI processor's capabilities are advancing rapidly, despite sanctions by the U.S. government and the lack of access to leading-edge process technologies of TSMC.

So chipping away at Taiwan's "silicon shield" (the defence strategy that an attack on Taiwan would deny China of the chips it needs itself).

Soon China can have a security situation with Taiwan (doesn't really matter if it actually invades, or just has a hotting-up conflict with rocket exchange) to choke off supplies of high-end chips to the West whilst domestic alternatives ramp up?

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China's territorial claims over Taiwan starts from 1949 since the civil war ends. [1]

The semiconductor doesn't play significant factor here. It only becomes hot topics in past few years because of TSMC's lead on its process, but really doesn't have any direct relationships.

In other words, current situation is a result of U.S. "Asia-Pacific Rebalance" strategy and military deployment over the first island chain [2] that China wanted the island regardless of TSMC.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War

[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_island_chain

Since we just entered AGI arms-race, semiconductor industry has direct relation.

I think China will capture Taiwan in the next two years.

That's definitely reading the situation totally wrong.

This so called arms race is only in western minds. It would be stupid to not think about this possibility and its consequences of course but this is the most illogical option by China.

The best option would be to advance their own semiconductor tech beyond TSMC and make it irrelevant, which so far is the course of action they are taking (alas only because they are forced by US).

Expanding on why capturing Taiwan is stupid: TSMC already has fabs and people with knowhow outside Taiwan. The fab assets are not as strategicly valuable as their knowhow. Plus, even if you acquire the knowhow, there's the supply chain: ASML, others, ASML's supply chain.

I think US might force ASML and TSMC to move to US in the coming years even stronger but more than that this arms race isn't getting hot.

There's no way the EU will allow US to force ASML to move to the US, especially given the burning of the bridges of decades of diplomacy by the incumbent president.

If the trade war continues and escalates, which form our current perspective it looks like it will, the EU will not lose one of its greatest assets in that space.

The idea of Trump that the US is powerful enough to strong arm everyone to his will is mistaken, an alienated US without its allies will suffer, as will the rest of the world..

But fixing that will be a job for the next CEO, I mean next president.

Totally agree. It is really in both sides interest to make TSMC irrelevant in Taiwan and avoid WW3.

So we will have a cold war, trade war and saber rattling until that time.

Then when the chips don't matter someday Taiwan will become old news to western minds like Iraq is today. When China takes Taiwan it will barely be a western news story because right now will feel so long in the past.

The CCP doesn't want Taiwan for the chips, they want it because having a successful democracy of ethnic Chinese off the shore means there are viable alternatives to communist rule, by and for Chinese people.

What if I told you most Chinese people really are more eager than the "CCP" to take over Taiwan?

In the same way that Russians want to "take over" Ukraine or Argentinians want to "take over" The Falklands or Americans want to "take over" Greenland?

Territorial expansion is always popular with the masses before the shooting starts.

It is more nationalistic than political; in fact, many unpopular politicians start wars in order to get a sense of national unity and tamp down unrest at home.

I’m not sure Greenland should be lumped in with the others considering the very different (lack of) history, and polling does not support its popularity.

> A strong majority of Americans, 66%, are opposed to U.S. territorial expansion accomplished “by invading other countries and territories,” according to a recent poll from More in Common.

> In contrast, just 13% support the U.S. launching an invasion to acquire territory, and 16% were not sure

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/artic...

why you mixed [Argentinians want to "take over" The Falklands] between [Russians want to "take over" Ukraine] and [Americans want to "take over" Greenland]

is it because of nationalism?

Yes, I was using them as examples of popularist nationalism.

there's no AGI arms-race in china

> He stressed that China will not blindly follow trends or engage in unrestrained international competition. With a robust governance and regulatory system in place, China is confident in its ability to manage and utilize AI technology effectively

https://www.geopolitechs.org/p/chinas-vice-premier-ding-xuex...

IIRC, this speech was given just after Stargate announced

>I think China will capture Taiwan in the next two years.

This is really bullshit

1) Those fabs would get damaged just due to war

2) Those fabs could be destroyed intentionally by Taiwan (or anyone else like US) either via missile or from inside

2.1) Equipment in those fabs can be remotely disabled

3) Those fabs need very skilled people to operate

4) Those fabs need very very skilled people to advance, move forward, if not, then they will quickly get behind

5) Those fabs are dependent on western supply chains like ASML machines

6) Those fabs are dependent on western customers

Earthquake destroying TSMC fabs is more likely than China taking over them and using them as nothing happened

Yes China wants Taiwan.

Taiwan has been touting it's "Silicon Shield" defence for years and trying to tie China's self-interest with leaving Taiwan alone for now.

But the Silicon Shield is tumbling.

On the one side the US (the carrots of the CHIPS act under Biden, the stick of sanctions on Taiwan under Trump) is trying get sovereign control of chip production.

And on the other side China is ramping up getting sovereign control of it's own top-end production.

If both stay on course then China will have one less big reason not to invade, and the US will have one big reason less to defend.

Of course if China wins the 'race' then it could be to it's advantage to have a rocket exchange or invasion with Taiwan to choke of the West's supply of chips before the West has brought chip production home?

I don't really think it will choke the supply, but only reduce in capacity in short term, for example TSMC Arizona[1] took 4 years to be in produciton. Intel's process is still acceptable and better than China.

Also semiconductor is very complicated manufacturing process not only invovles Taiwan but vendors all over the world, like the light source of EUV is provided by Cymer based in U.S. I don't think China taking over Taiwan would mean they can transfer whatever is there into something productive in any short time as because of supply chain problem. Note that many SMIC's (basically China's TSMC) leadership are actually from TSMC already[2].

[1]https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liang_Mong_Song

> So chipping away at Taiwan's "silicon shield"

This assumes Taiwan's involvement in Huawei processors are 0. Lots of things don't make the news. There are way more companies involved than just TSMC.

At the risk of whataboutism, this is looking a little differnet now on the world stage with the US-on-Denmark threats. A second source for AI hw from China could turn out to be a good card to have even for western countries.

Don't need China to choke off chips. Trump is doing that himself with tariffs

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