The interesting question to me is how far these reasoning models can be scaled. With another 12 months of compute scaling (for synthetic data generation and RL) how good will these models be at coding? I talked with Finbarr Timbers (ex-DeepMind) yesterday about this and his take is that we'll hit diminishing returns – not because we can't make models more powerful, but because we're approaching diminishing returns in areas that matter to users and that AI models may be nearing a plateau where capability gains matter less than UX.