Hmm. Dunno, I can't really answer that without sounding like I am tooting my own horn. Would it help further if I said that my day job is about disinfo/ fraudulent content, and that I make these statements based on work experience?

I could add that I've made these calls, since 2008, and they've been predictable.

Thing is, any rando online can claim these things, so I don't know how to answer your comment.

So what would you look for to differentiate between prediction and simulation?