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Comment by fofoz | Hacker News Reader

When these models succeed in building a whole program and a whole system then the software industry that creates products and services will disappear. Any person and any organization will create from scratch the software they need perfectly customized to their needs and the AI system will evolve it over time. At most they will have to cooperate on communication protocols. In my opinion we are less than 5 years away from this event.

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Any person who has the ability to break down a problem to the point that code can be written to solve it, and the ability to work with an LLM system to get that work done, and the ability to evaluate if the resulting code solves the problem.

That's a mixture of software developer, program manager, product manager and QA engineer.

I think that's what software developer roles will look like in the future: a slightly different mix of skills, but still very much a skilled specialist.

I really want this to be true, but honestly it's really hard. What makes you think this won't be eaten too within the next year based on the current s-curve-if-not-exponential we are on?

I still don't believe in AGI.

Why? It feels like the spade of advancements post-o1 are shattering all remaining roadblocks to AGI.

Not the poster, but, for example, some people invested heavily in self driving cars (which could be seen as a subset of AGI) and it is much more limited than what we were promised.

My guess is that (as in most fields) the advancements will be more convoluted and surprising than the simple idea of "we now have AGI".

I don't think organization will be able to do this themselves. Transforming vague ideas into a product requires an intermediary step, a step that is already part of our daily job. I don't see this step going away before a very long time.

Non-tech people have the tools to create website for a long time, though, they still hire people to do this. I'm not talking about complex websites, just static web pages.

There will simply be less jobs that there is today.

So what current action are you going to take based on your prediction?

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