There isn't enough cobalt available. [1] Currently Tesla's, for example still uses around 5% cobalt for their batteries, while they have tried to get rid of it. Even then, if we manage to replace that completely for every manufacturer, we have lithium only for around 2,8 billion batteries. Average lifetime for lithium battery is 10 years. We need to be able to perfectly recycle the batteris in order to sustain them, which is not currently happening [2].
But I have to correct my initial statement, practically lithium can be there, but it assumes that we mine it from the bottom of the oceans or the environmental impact is reasonable when mining it.
> I can go out and buy a BEV at most common price points compared to ICE vehicles, so it’s definitely not a luxury for the wealthiest.
That is likely from the U.S. or European perspective. We need to note Africa and Asia as well. In Southern Europe the cost of the EV vehicle is already out of reach for most of the people.
[1]: https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/42_2021.pdf
[2]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13640...
Some summaries about the second paper (which is quite new and thorough) (it estimates current reserves, production rate and the possible battery size):
To put this range in context estimates of available lithium resources range from 4 to 22 million tonnes, with the USGS estimating 13 million tonnes of lithium reserves. However, significantly more lithium may be available if lithium prices increase. Yaksic and Tilton [9] estimate that, at a cost of between $1.40 and $2 per lb of lithium carbonate, 22 million tonnes of lithium is available. However, they also estimate that at a cost of between $7 and $10 per lb of lithium carbonate, lithium can be extracted from seawater, more than doubling their estimate of available lithium.
Given the conservative nature of common reserve estimates, and the resulting behaviour that these estimates typically increase over time, it is practical to assume the latest reserve estimate as a lower bound for estimates of future lithium availability. Given the current USGS lithium reserve estimate of 13 Mt, and the conservative nature of these types of estimate it is reasonable to discount those estimates in Fig. 4.5 that are lower than 13 Mt. This leaves the upper estimate provided by Rade and Andersson [20], the Gruber et al. [18] estimate, and the Yaksic and Tilton [9] estimate.
This gives a range of 13 Mt to 22 Mt.17 for future availability of lithium.
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The estimated range of future demand is many times greater than current supply. While this is challenging there is no evidence that future production cannot increase at a sufficient pace. Though long term exponential growth in lithium production would be unsustainable, if growth could be sustained over the next two decades, meeting future demand may be possible. Supporting this optimism are the significant resource estimates for lithium seen in Fig. 5.1, though these estimates make no assessment of how easy these resources are to access, and over what timescales they can be produced.
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The paper assumed that EVs have 16–35 kW batteries on average. If you can access it, it is highly detailed. It also assumes that getting lithium from the bottom of the oceans is uncertain.
Also:
The recovery of lithium from spent batteries remains a niche market [44], and the battery industry does not currently produce batteries using recycled material [48].