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Comment by Analemma_ | Hacker News Reader

> But the real goal of the constant back-and-forth over where it came from is not about finding the truth; that much seems quite obvious to me.

Yes, the annoying thing is that "the truth about covid" literally only matters to culture war grievances, it has no relevance whatsoever to the actual world. If it was a lab leak, then China needs to improve their BSL-4 safety... but they need to do that anyway[0]. If it was zoonotic, then they need to clean up the wet markets... but they need to do that anyway. The true origin of covid makes no difference at all, and I wish these people would just come out and admit this is all domestic political peacocking.

[0]: and so does everyone else, for that matter. The US has also had several close calls with BSL-4 leaks; if covid did originate from a lab leak, the fact that it wasn't from an American lab is just sheer dumb luck.

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If it were a lab leak then the people especially fearful and distrustful of gain of function research would feel vindicated and try to use that to shut down existing research programs. I don't think that group of people is meaningfully divided along partisan lines, and outside the professional class probably includes everybody.

Conversely, if it were a natural outbreak then that bolsters the case for continuing gain of function research as before. Such research is precisely why we were able to identify the threat and within weeks assemble a vaccine, at least on paper. (Granted, the arc began long before 2019 with a through-line of research going back to the 2002 SARS outbreak.) And it's why we've many other advancements. Creation of CRISPR and related technology emerged in part out of gain of function research with viruses. Gain of function is a critical tool in testing hypotheses about how foundational molecular machinery works, and viruses are a convenient research model for exploring and testing ideas in that space.

But I'm not sure the origin should matter to that debate. And I'm even more sure it probably won't matter, even if we agreed on a definitive answer.

Whenever you have an institutional failure, you need to do a root cause analysis to fix the problem. That includes Chinese labs. That also includes health organizations who may have put aside their objectivity and tried to discredit a theory merely because they disagreed with the politics of those supporting it.

The wet markets were a super spreader event... Doesn't really tell you much about where it started (even if it has animal origin).

People just assumed that the wet markets were the cause of the problem, because they found them digusting (and wanted an excuse to blame it on the Chinese being evil).

In a less dense population, without many people going to the same hospital... You would just not have noticed Covid much.

Wow do we live in the same "actual world?" If we knew for certain that covid began in the Wuhan lab, it would be World War 3.

I get your perspective: an outbreak is an unfortunate byproduct of the risks necessary for scientific progress. No one couldve known how bad it would be. The damage is done, learn from your mistakes and move on. Very enlightened.

In the real world, people will lose their absolute shit. There would be near global demand for sanctions and reparations, and there's enough anti china sentiment that its a real possibility.

Backed into a corner, the world against them, they would have no other choice. It would be a matter of survival.

> If we knew for certain that covid began in the Wuhan lab, it would be World War 3.

1. why?

2. that attitude strongly disincentives the discovery of the truth. If that were true I would support a cover up!

"Why" because of all the latent anger and frustration from the mass death and pain of the pandemic. Its naive to underestimate it. How it unfolds, think WWI reparations from Germany.

"Cover it up anyway" pretty much. There's precedent for this, we never got the full truth about 9/11 either. To this day the 100 page dossier is off limits to the public, probably for similar reasoning. The USA wants to play the board opportunistically without regard for justice or public outrage. And then people wonder why the public feels abandoned by their government.

> "Why" because of all the latent anger and frustration from the mass death and pain of the pandemic. Its naive to underestimate it. How it unfolds, think WWI reparations from Germany.

Why is a lab outbreak worse than a wet market outbreak?

The same reason arson is worse than a wild fire.

Arson implies intent, leak does not

Intent is a good word, and the right question. What's the intent of a bio security lab? What's the intent of gain of function research?

Some say the intent of a firearm is self defense, as the intent of a nuclear bomb is a deterrent.

Finally, what role does intent play in the poker world championship?

And for record of the court, arson by negligence is a criminal offense.

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