More like three years. Even in the best case the retained value curve of GPUs is absolutely terrible. Most of these huge investments in GPUs are going to be massive losses.
I actually wonder if this is true in the long term regardless of any AI uses. I mean, GPUs are general-purpose parallel compute, and there are so many things you can throw at them that can be of interest, whether economic or otherwise. For example, you can use them to model nuclear reactions...
Do we have any idea how long a cloud provider needs to rent them out for to make back their investment? I’d be surprised if it was more than a year, but that is just a wild guess.
GPUs can do other stuff though. I wouldn't bet on GPU ghost towns.
>retained value curve of GPUs is absolutely terrible